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27
January

 

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A security assessment by Indian police in the Himalayan region of Ladakh says there could be more clashes between Indian and Chinese troops along their contested frontier there as Beijing ramps up military infrastructure in the region.

At least 24 soldiers were killed when the armies of the Asian giants clashed in Ladakh, in the western Himalayas, in 2020 but tensions eased after military and diplomatic talks. A fresh clash erupted between the two sides in the eastern Himalayas in December but there were no deaths.

The assessment is part of a new, confidential research paper by the Ladakh Police that was submitted at a conference of top police officers held from January 20 to 22 and has been reviewed by Reuters.

The report said the assessment was based on intelligence gathered by local police in the border areas and the pattern of India-China military tensions over the years.

The Indian army did not respond to a request for comment but the assessment assumes significance as it was submitted at a conference attended by Prime Minister Narendra Modi. India's defence and foreign ministries also did not respond to requests for comment.

The Chinese foreign ministry did not respond to a request for comment.

"Given the domestic compulsions ... in China and their economic interests in the region, the PLA would continue to build up its military infrastructure and skirmishes would also get frequent which may or may not follow a pattern,” the paper said, referring to China's People’s Liberation Army.

“If we analyse the pattern of skirmishes and tensions, the intensity has increased since 2013-2014 with an interval of every 2-3 years,” it said.

“With the massive infrastructure build up by PLA on Chinese side both the armies are testing each other’s reaction, strength of artillery and infantry mobilization time”.

The report also said India has been slowly losing ground to China in Ladakh as the border has been pushed inside Indian territory through the creation of buffer zones.

India and China share a 3,500 km (2,100 miles) border that has been disputed since the 1950s. The two sides went to war over it in 1962. (Reuters)

27
January

 

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Myanmar's ruling junta on Friday announced tough requirements for parties to contest an election this year, including a huge increase in their membership, a move that could sideline the military's opponents and cement its grip on politics.

Myanmar's top generals led a coup in February 2021 after five years of tense power-sharing under a quasi-civilian political system that was created by the military, which led to a decade of unprecedented reform.

The country has been in chaos since the putsch, with a resistance movement fighting the military on multiple fronts after a bloody crackdown on opponents that saw Western sanctions re-imposed.

The military has pledged to hold an election in August this year. An announcement in Friday's state media said parties intending to compete nationally must have at least 100,000 members, up from 1,000 previously, and commit to running in the election in the next 60 days or be de-registered as a party.

The rules favour the Union Solidarity and Development Party, a military proxy stacked with former generals, which was trounced by Aung San Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy (NLD) party in 2015 and 2020 elections.

The NLD was decimated by the coup, with thousands of its members arrested or jailed, including Suu Kyi, and many more in hiding.

Richard Horsey, senior adviser to the International Crisis Group, who was based in Myanmar for 15 years, said the rules aimed to restore a political system the military can control.

"Parties are going to be either too scared, offended at the sham that the election is, or it will just be too expensive for them to mount a nationwide campaign in that kind of environment. Who would fund a political party right now?" he said.

"This whole exercise is something to perpetuate military rule. It's a piece of theatre. It doesn't have to work, because they've decided what the outcome will be."

The junta says it is committed to democracy and seized power because of unaddressed violations in a 2020 election won in a landslide by the ruling NLD.

The NLD in November described the election as "phoney" and said it would not acknowledge it. The election has also been dismissed as a sham by Western governments. (Reuters)

27
January

 

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Thailand's ruling pro-military Palang Pracharat party has chosen political veteran and former army chief Prawit Wongsuwon as its prime minister candidate, a senior official said on Friday, as parties gear up for an election that must be held by May.

Prawit, an adept political dealmaker in Thailand's conservative establishment and current deputy prime minister, will likely go against the Pheu Thai Party's Paetongtarn Shinawatra, the daughter of self-exiled former premier, Thaksin Shinawatra, who has declared her readiness for the top job.

"He is the centre of the party ... our members, parliamentarians all see him as talented and most suitable," Palang Pracharat's deputy leader Paiboon Nititawan said after a party meeting.

Prawit, 77, could also face off with incumbent prime minister and protege Prayuth Chan-ocha, 68, who has joined the United Thai Nation Party and has hinted at a bid to extend his rule, which started with a coup he led eight years ago.

Both are former army chiefs who often refer to each other as brothers, hailing from the elite Queen's Guard unit. Both were involved in coups against governments controlled by the Shinawatra family.

Prawit could not immediately be reached for comment on Friday but when asked last week if he was ready to be premier, he said: "Just vote for me."

In a Facebook post on Wednesday Prawit said "politicians must be able to work with all parties, compromise to reduce conflict and adhere to the public interest."

Despite sharing a conservative electoral base, some observers say the two generals running for different parties could be strategic and advantageous in ensuring they stay in power.

"There is a strong likelihood that they will work together during and after the vote," said Ben Kiatkwankul, partner at government affairs advisory, Maverick Consulting Group.

A "divide and conquer" strategy might work, he added, with Prawit's party able to win votes in areas where Prayuth may not be popular. (Reuters)

27
January

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The International Criminal Court's decision to allow a probe into the Philippines' drugs war to resume is an "irritant", the country's justice secretary said on Friday, maintaining the ICC has no jurisdiction over the country's affairs.

Jesus Crispin Remulla said the ICC should not impose on the Philippines, which is no longer a signatory to the international tribunal.

"They are insulting us," Remulla told a media briefing after the ICC granted its prosecutor's request to reopen an investigation into the killings during former President Rodrigo Duterte's 'war on drugs' and other suspected rights abuses.

Police say they killed 6,200 dealers who resisted arrest during anti-drug operations during Duterte's term. Many thousands more users and peddlers were gunned down during the crackdown, in what authorities said were vigilante killings. Rights groups and some victims accuse the police of systematic cover-ups and executions, which they deny.

The ICC, which had suspended the investigation in November 2021 at Manila's request, said in a statement it was "not satisfied that the Philippines is undertaking relevant investigations that would warrant a deferral of the investigation."

But Remulla said the timing of the ICC's move was "very wrong" since the country is "doing what it takes to fix the system," like improving law enforcement agencies, including the police.

"I do not welcome this move of the ICC and I will not welcome them to the Philippines until they make clear that they will respect us in this regard," Remulla said.

He said the country was open to dialogue with the ICC, and would provide the court with data if asked, but "they cannot come in here and impose themselves on us."

Former police chief Ronaldo dela Rosa, who oversaw Duterte's bloody crackdown, had earlier said he would cooperate with the ICC if the government decided to participate.

Current Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr and the vice president, who is Duterte's daughter, did not comment on the latest ICC decision. He said in August he had no intention of rejoining the ICC after Duterte pulled out of the court in 2019, after accusing it of prejudice.

Human Rights Watch said the ICC investigation was the only credible path to justice for victims and their families.

"As the court's judges agreed, Philippine authorities are not 'undertaking relevant investigations' into these crimes or 'making a real or genuine effort' to carry these investigations out," Human Rights Watch said in a statement. "The ICC offers a path forward to fill the accountability vacuum."

Families of many drug war victims are still seeking justice in long, drawn-out cases.

In a rare conviction, a Philippine court in 2018 sentenced three police officers to up to 40 years in jail for the murder of a 17-year-old high school student. The teenager's death featured in a report by a former ICC prosecutor. (Reuters)