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September
How Kim Jong Un’s meeting with Putin could shake up North Korea-Russia relations
Written by Nur Yasmin
The coming meetings between Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un could help reshape how the reclusive and distrustful North has dealt with its partners in Moscow and Beijing, analysts say.
When Kim visited Russia for the first time in 2019, his summit with Putin was almost an afterthought amid the flashier meetings with then-U.S. President Donald Trump and multiple visits to meet with North Korea's only treaty ally and main economic partner, China.
This year, Pyongyang's relations with Moscow are in the spotlight, with Kim choosing Russia - not China - as his first foreign visit since before the COVID-19 pandemic, raising the prospect that he may be looking to balance the two major powers on his borders against each other, analysts said.
It remains to be seen whether Putin and Kim agree on anything substantive such as an arms deal or economic aid, but their moves to repair ties may have implications for the war in Ukraine, tensions with South Korea and Japan, and the China-U.S. rivalry.
“North Korea has basically been on its own, without any true allies,” said Artyom Lukin of Russia's Far Eastern Federal University. “Now North Korea needs allies in the full politico-military sense of the term.”
China will be Pyongyang's main ally and protector, but Russia will have a role too, he said.
“Unlike the China-North Korea alliance, the Russia-North Korea alliance will be that of equals,” he added.
Early in his rule, Kim's relations with Beijing and Moscow were chilly, with both countries joining international sanctions against North Korea over its nuclear weapons and missile programs.
Since 2018, however, Kim has moved to repair ties and has capitalised on rivalries that have split China and Russia from the United States and others.
Pyongyang and Moscow have denied that North Korea would supply arms to Russia, but they have vowed to boost military ties, possibly including joint drills, and discussions may also include Russian humanitarian aid to the North.
Some analysts and Beijing-based diplomats say China may view Kim's decision to visit Russia in his first international trip in years as somewhat of a slight.
Kim visited Xi in Beijing in his first known foreign trip as leader in 2018, and they last met when Xi visited Pyongyang in 2019, just before the COVID pandemic erupted.
"If you are Xi Jinping, you have to wonder why Kim is visiting Vladivostok and not Beijing on the first trip outside North Korea since before the pandemic," said John Delury, a professor of Chinese Studies at Yonsei University in Seoul, South Korea.
"During the Cold War, Kim's grandfather (Kim Il Sung) subtly and effectively played on the vanities and anxieties of Beijing and Moscow, who were locked in a competition for dominance within the socialist bloc," he added. "In this new Cold War-ish environment, we should not dismiss the possibility that the Chinese are a bit miffed seeing Kim choose Putin over them."
China's foreign ministry did not immediately respond to a request for comment on the summit. Several Chinese academics asked to comment on the summit declined, saying the matter was too sensitive. The few reports in Chinese state media have referred only to official statements from Russia and North Korea on the meeting.
Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul, said he was unsurprised that Kim chose Russia as his first post-pandemic destination abroad given the North Korean leader's interest in exploiting "new Cold War" geopolitics.
Even so, tensions and distrust linger among North Korea, China, and Russia, and that may limit cooperation on things such as joint military drills or transferring sensitive military technology, he said.
"Putin is unlikely to provide Kim with technology to miniaturise nuclear devices or propel nuclear-powered submarines because even a desperate war machine does not trade its military crown jewels for old, dumb munitions," Easley said. "Trust is so low among Russia, North Korea, and China that a real alliance of the three isn’t credible or sustainable." (Reuters)
September
Afghan Taliban criticises closure of main border crossing with Pakistan
Written by Nur Yasmin
The Afghan Taliban criticised the closure of its main border crossing with Pakistan this week after clashes between security forces, saying the halt in trade would see heavy losses for businesses.
The busy Torkham border crossing closed on Wednesday after Pakistani and Afghan Taliban forces started firing at each other, according to local officials.
"The Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan deems the closure of Torkham gate and opening of fire on Afghan security forces by the Pakistani side contrary to good neighbourliness," Taliban administration's Ministry of Foreign Affairs said in a statement late on Saturday.
The statement said the incident had started after Pakistani security forces fired at Afghan Taliban forces fixing an old security outpost near the border. Pakistan's foreign office did not immediately respond to request for comment.
Hundreds of trucks laden with goods have been halted and traders have complained that trade is affected.
"The closure of Torkham gate can adversely affect bilateral and regional trade, and cause trade and financial losses to common mercantile class on both sides," the statement said, adding many travellers were also stuck on each side of the border.
Disputes linked to the 2,600 km (1,615 mile) border have been a bone of contention between the neighbours for decades. (Reuters)
September
With Bangladesh visit, Macron caps France's Asian pivot
Written by Nur Yasmin
Whether he’s lobbying for Airbus to sell aircraft to Bangladesh or scouring for rare earths in Mongolia, French President Emmanuel Macron is on the offensive in Asia, pitching France as a useful alternative to bigger powers.
After two days of high-level talks with G20 leaders in New Delhi, where he was treated to lunch with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Macron set off for neighbouring Bangladesh, a fast-growing South Asian nation of 170 million people.
The two-day stopover in Dhaka was part of a French strategy to target mid-sized countries in a region where superpowers such as China, Russia or the U.S. are jostling for influence.
"In a region facing new imperialism, we want to propose a third way," Macron told Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina after landing in a sweltering Dhaka late on Sunday.
"All our strategy is focused on strengthening the independence and the strategic autonomy of our friends to give them the 'freedom of sovereignty'," Macron said.
The French leader, who Hasina called "a breath of fresh air in international politics", was hot on the heels of Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, who visited Bangladesh a few days before the G20 summit.
Russia is building a nuclear power plant in Bangladesh, a $13 billion project financed by a Russian government loan.
The French are also trying to sell their nuclear expertise, even if a power plant contract is a more distant prospect.
They are making more progress in the aerospace sector, however. In a country long dominated by Boeing, Macron on Monday clinched a deal for Airbus to sell 10 A-350 aircraft to national flagship carrier Biman Bangladesh Airlines Ltd.
The Bangladesh trip comes after a series of short but high-level trips by Macron this year to Asian nations such as Mongolia, Papua New Guinea and Sri Lanka.
Macron, who launched France's Indo-Pacific strategy in 2018, the first European country to do so, has talked of Europe as a "third way" in a region increasingly under the sway of China-U.S. rivalry.
"We’re a country of 60 million, so of course we can’t compete head-on with China," a French diplomat told Reuters.
"But although the U.S. are our allies, we have our own interest and can help countries in the region diversifying their alliances, so they’re not reliant on one country alone." (Reuters)
September
G20 summit agrees on words but struggles on action
Written by Nur Yasmin
The Group of 20 major economies reached a hard-fought compromise over the war in Ukraine and papered over other key differences in a summit declaration at the weekend, presenting few concrete achievements in its core remit of responses to global financial issues.
Diplomats and analysts said the surprise consensus in the summit statement on the Russia-Ukraine conflict avoided a split in the group, and the inclusion of the African Union as a new member represented a victory for host India and for developing economies, but the rest was disappointing.
"The G20 has been at its best as a multilateral forum when it can forge consensus - not just on language, but on action - to deal with serious global issues, such as global financial crises," said Michael Froman, president of the New York-based Council on Foreign Relations.
"Looking ahead, the focus should be on that, not on the statement per se," said Froman, a former U.S. trade representative who has also worked as Washington’s G20 and G8 negotiator.
The summit declaration avoided condemning Russia for the war in Ukraine but highlighted the human suffering the conflict had caused and called on all states not to use force to grab territory.
Few had expected the G20 to reach a consensus on the document, let alone on the first afternoon of the two-day summit, as the group had failed to agree on a single communique at the 20 or so ministerial meetings this year due to the hardened stance on the war.
A failure to agree on a summit declaration would have signalled that the G20 was split, perhaps irrevocably, between the West on one side and China and Russia on the other, analysts said.
And with Beijing pushing to reshuffle the world order by expanding groupings such as BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, G20 could have ended up becoming irrelevant, they said.
DIFFICULT SUMMIT
G20 was set up as a platform of finance ministers and central bank governors in 1999 to counter the effects of the Asian financial crisis and the meeting was expanded to include leaders after the global financial crisis in 2008.
Its primary role of coordinating responses to economic issues - including global taxation and helping low-income nations manage their debt burden under the Common Framework in recent years - has been diluted because the need to seek a consensus has led to weak agreements, some analysts said.
This year, resolving differences on the Ukraine war and other issues took up a lengthy 25 days of negotiations, including in the week leading up to the summit, Svetlana Lukash, the Russian G20 sherpa, or government negotiator, was quoted as saying by Russian news agency Interfax.
"This was one of the most difficult G20 summits in the almost twenty-year history of the forum," Lukash said.
The G20 process requires consensus on all decisions which means it will pursue the “lowest common denominator”, said Patryk Kugiel, a senior analyst at the Polish Institute of International Affairs in Warsaw.
“Therefore, we do not have any concrete and substantial decisions, commitments, pledges from G20 on any of the pressing global challenges, from climate change to debt,” Kugiel added. “It makes the forum ineffective, even useless.”
At the New Delhi gathering, the leaders agreed to pursue tripling renewable energy capacity globally by 2030 and accepted the need to phase-down unabated coal power.
However, they set no timetable and said the use of coal had to be wound down in line with national circumstances.
Coal, which is being phased out of the power system in many industrialised nations, is still a vital fuel in many developing economies and may remain so for decades to come.
The meeting also agreed to address debt vulnerabilities of poor countries and strengthen and reform multilateral development banks, but without setting any concrete goals.
There was also no progress on getting Russia to return to the Black Sea initiative although the declaration called for the safe flow of grain, food and fertiliser from both Ukraine and Russia.
FEAR OF DIVISION, DISAPPOINTMENT
For most major G20 members though, the summit declaration appeared to be a major gain since it reached a consensus on acceptable language to refer to the war in Ukraine.
Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, who represented Russia at the summit in place of the absent President Vladimir Putin, said India's presidency, "probably for the first time during the entire G20 existence, has truly consolidated G20 participants from the Global South".
Diplomats have said negotiators from India, Indonesia, Brazil and South Africa drove the consensus in the summit document.
The U.S., Germany and Britain all lauded the declaration.
There was no official word from China but its state-run news agency Xinhua, without referring to the declaration, said in a commentary on Saturday that G20 could still be made to work.
China's presence was muted at the meeting with President Xi Jinping staying away and Beijing represented by Premier Li Qiang, who took his post in March this year.
A French official who was present at the summit said “G20 actually remains a club that's capable of forging consensus between north and south and east and west”.
Despite the lack of concrete progress, Harsh Vardhan Shringla, India's chief G20 coordinator, said the meeting did take the group forward.
“The concerns of the developing world are so great that if you failed ... they would have to face much greater issues of division and, I would say, even disappointment,” he told Reuters. (Reuters)
September
Taiwan says Chinese carrier group in Western Pacific for training
Written by Nur Yasmin
A Chinese naval formation led by the aircraft carrier Shandong passed 60 nautical miles (111km) to Taiwan's southeast on Monday and entered the western Pacific for training, the island's defence ministry said.
The ministry said that beginning at 5:40 a.m., it also spotted 11 Chinese military aircraft, including J-16 fighters, in Taiwan's air defence identification zone and that its forces had made an "appropriate response".
The Shandong, commissioned in 2019, participated in Chinese military drills around Taiwan in April, operating in the western Pacific. It also sailed through the Taiwan Strait in June.
A U.S. and a Canadian warship sailed through the Taiwan Strait on Saturday, marking the second such joint mission since June and coinciding with the leaders of both countries attending the G20 summit in India.
China, which has never renounced the use of force to bring Taiwan under its control, has stepped up military activities near the democratically governed island, responding to what it calls "collusion" between Taiwan and the United States.
Taiwan strongly disputes Beijing's sovereignty claims. (Reuters)
September
US, Vietnam firms talk business during Biden visit; AI and Boeing deals unveiled
Written by Nur Yasmin
Executives at top U.S. and Vietnamese firms in the semiconductor, tech and aviation sectors met on Monday seeking to forge business partnerships during U.S. President Joe Biden's visit to Hanoi which has seen new deals on on planes and AI.
Senior executives from Google (GOOGL.O), Intel (INTC.O), Amkor (AMKR.O), Marvell (MRVL.O), GlobalFoundries (GFS.O) and Boeing (BA.N) attended the Vietnam-U.S. Innovation & Investment Summit, according to the meeting agenda.
From Vietnam, there were executives from half a dozen companies, including Nasdaq-listed electric car maker VinFast , flag carrier Vietnam Airlines (HVN.HM), tech company FPT (FPT.HM), MoMo, the country's biggest e-wallet by users, as well as internet firm VNG, which filed in August for a U.S. IPO.
Biden reiterated at the meeting that the two countries were deepening cooperation in cloud computing, semiconductors and artificial intelligence, and stressed Vietnam was crucial for critical minerals supplies.
The country has the world's second-biggest estimated deposits of rare earths, which are used in electric vehicles and wind turbines.
The meeting, which followed a historic upgrade of diplomatic relations agreed on Sunday, underscored U.S. desire to boost Vietnam's global role. This is particularly so in chipmaking with Washington seeking to reduce the sector's exposure to China-linked risks, including trade friction and tensions over Taiwan.
Deals unveiled by the White House during the trip include Vietnam Airlines' purchase of 50 Boeing 737 Max jets, in an agreement that it said was worth $7.8 billion, in line with an earlier Reuters report.
The White House also announced plans by Microsoft (MSFT.O) to make a "generative AI-based solution tailored for Vietnam and emerging markets."
Nvidia (NVDA.O) will also partner with Vietnam's FPT, Viettel and Vingroup (VIC.HM), VinFast's parent company, on AI in the country, it said.
The White House also highlighted the number of chip-related investments by U.S. firms in Vietnam, including plans by Marvell and Synopsys (SNPS.O) to build chip design centres in the country.
A new $1.6 billion Amkor factory near Hanoi that will assemble, package and test chips is due to start operations in October, it added.
The investment value is on par with Intel's $1.5 billion chip assembling plant in the south of the country - the company's biggest worldwide. Sources said earlier this year that it may be expanded.
U.S. conglomerate Honeywell (HON.O) will cooperate with a Vietnamese partner to launch a pilot project to develop Vietnam's first battery energy storage system, the White House also said.
U.S. State Secretary Antony Blinken and Vietnam's investment minister Nguyen Chi Dung chaired the meeting, which was followed by discussions with Biden and Vietnam's Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh.
Dung also told the meeting that he hoped Vietnamese companies could expand in the United States and join the globlal supply chain, according to a government statement. (Reuters)
September
G20 members struggle for consensus on Ukraine as India gears up for summit
Written by Nur Yasmin
Leaders of the Group of 20 major economies began arriving in New Delhi on Friday for their annual gathering as negotiators struggled to bridge differences over the war in Ukraine, seeking to build consensus for a successful summit host India wants.
Slums, monkeys and stray dogs have been removed from the streets of the Indian capital and businesses, offices and schools were closed in the central business and government district as part of security measures to ensure the two-day summit runs smoothly.
But the gathering risks being derailed by deeper and more entrenched divisions over Russia's war, hurting progress on issues such as food security, debt distress and cooperation on climate change.
It is also expected to be dominated by the West and its allies. Chinese President Xi Jinping is skipping the meeting and sending Premier Li Qiang instead, while Russia's Vladimir Putin will also be absent.
The summit will still be the most high-powered gathering ever in India with U.S. President Joe Biden, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, French President Emmanuel Macron, Saudi Arabia's Mohammed Bin Salman and Japan's Fumio Kishida, among others, confirming participation.
UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak will urge Prime Minister Narendra Modi to "call out" Russia over its invasion and use its clout to help end the war, the Financial Times reported on Thursday.
The hardened stance on the war has prevented agreement on even a single communique at the ministerial meetings during India's G20 presidency so far this year, leaving it to the leaders to find a way around, if possible.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, who is in New Delhi ahead of Biden's arrival on Friday, said Washington is willing to work with India to help craft a communique at the end of the summit but it would be a challenge.
"So I understand that this is challenging to craft such language, but I know the negotiators are discussing it, and working hard to do so and we stand ready certainly to work with India to try to craft communique that successfully addresses this concern," Yellen told reporters at a briefing.
The most important thing that can be done to support global economic growth is for Russia to end its brutal war in Ukraine, she said.
The IMF has forecast lower growth for most G20 nations this year than in 2022.
LANGUAGE ON WAR
European Council President Charles Michel echoed that view.
It is difficult to predict whether leaders will reach a consensus on a declaration but EU will support efforts made by India for a final communique, Michel told reporters in New Delhi.
Michel said Moscow is violating the UN charter and must stop attacking Ukrainian cities.
G20 sherpas or negotiators have made progress on most issues but the main point sticking point is the language in the leaders' declaration on the war, four Indian government sources told Reuters.
Western countries want a strong condemnation of the invasion as a condition for agreeing to a Delhi declaration. India has suggested that the G20, while condemning the suffering caused by Russia's invasion, also reflect Moscow and Beijing's view that the forum is not the place for geopolitics.
In addition, there is some disagreement on climate change cooperation, the sherpas added.
The group has been divided on commitments to phasing down fossil-fuel use, increasing renewable energy targets and reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
Modi's government is projecting India's presidency of the group and the summit as a showcase for the country's fast-growing economy and its rising position in the geo-political pecking order.
New Delhi has been decked up for the gathering with a brand new summit venue, fountains, flowerpots and illumination along major thoroughfares, alongside thousands of armed security personnel standing guard. (Reuters)
September
Taiwan August exports fall less than expected, growth seen resuming
Written by Nur Yasmin
Taiwan's exports dropped for the 12th consecutive month in August but less sharply than expected, and may return to growth in September ahead of the year-end holiday shopping season, the finance ministry said on Friday.
August exports dropped 7.3% in value from a year earlier to $37.36 billion, the ministry said, the smallest decline and first single-digit percentage fall since October. That compared with a 10.4% fall in July and exceeded a Reuters poll forecasting an 8.05% contraction.
Despite the stagnation in exports, a key driver for Taiwan's economy, the island's GDP returned to growth in the second quarter, helped by resilient domestic consumption.
The ministry forecast improved export performance in coming months, when orders traditionally pick up ahead of the busy year-end shopping season, which is expected to be driven this year by rising demand for high-performance computing, artificial intelligence, data centres and automotive electronics.
For September, the ministry said exports may expand, predicting a performance ranging from a contraction of 2% to growth of 2%.
In August, total shipments of electronic components fell 11.2% from the year before to $15.14 billion, with semiconductor exports down 10.4%.
Taiwanese firms such as TSMC (2330.TW), , the world's largest contract chipmaker, are major suppliers to Apple Inc (AAPL.O), Nvidia (NVDA.O) and other global tech giants, while providing chips for auto companies and lower-end consumer goods.
TSMC reported earlier on Friday that August sales fell 13.5% year-on-year.
Taiwan's exports to China fell 14.1% in August from a year earlier to $12.98 billion, after the prior month's drop of 16.3%.
Exports to the United States rose 8.8% in August, after slipping an annual 3.3% in July.
Taiwan's August imports, often seen as a leading indicator of re-exports of finished products, dropped 22.9% to $28.77 billion. That compared with economists' forecasts of a 16.3% fall. (Reuters)
September
Australia, Philippines upgrade ties to strategic partnership
Written by Nur Yasmin
Australia and the Philippines on Friday agreed to hold annual defence ministers' meetings as the two nations upgraded bilateral ties to a strategic partnership amid rising security challenges in the region, including in the South China Sea.
Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese signed a strategic partnership agreement with Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. during his trip to Manila, the first visit by an Australian leader in 20 years.
"Australia is working with our partners including the Philippines to shape a region where sovereignty is upheld," Albanese said in a joint press conference with Marcos after holding bilateral talks
Marcos said their countries' close ties were "terribly important".
The Philippines last month held military exercises near the South China Sea with Australia, its second-largest partner in defence security. It is also one of only two bilateral partners with whom the Philippines has a Status of Visiting Forces Agreement, which allows two countries to undertake joint exercises, high-level visits, dialogues and exchanges.
Australia has discussed pursuing joint navy patrols in the resource-rich waterway.
Albanese threw his support behind a 2016 arbitral ruling on the South China Sea that invalidated China's expansive claims in the strategic waterway where about $3 trillion worth of ship-borne trade passes annually.
"Australia supports the 2016 South China Sea arbitral award. That is final and binding. And it is important that it be upheld going forward," Albanese said.
The Philippines, Malaysia, Vietnam, Brunei and Taiwan have claims to certain areas of the South China Sea. Most of Australia's trade also goes through the South China Sea.
Albanese confirmed on Thursday he will visit China later this year, the first visit by an Australian leader since 2016. (Reuters)
September
Why is North Korea growing its navy with submarines and nuclear drones?
Written by Nur Yasmin
Over the past year North Korea has moved to boost its navy with new nuclear weapons, including an underwater drone, warships, and its first operational missile submarine, unveiled on Friday.
North Korea's navy has historically been dwarfed by the country's land forces, and overshadowed by its rapidly advancing ballistic missile program.
Now, leader Kim Jong Un has said the navy will play a key role in the country's nuclear deterrence, and analysts say it may also assure support among naval commanders and boost national pride.
"Until quite recently, Kim has largely appeared to neglect naval nuclear programmes," said Ankit Panda of the U.S.-based Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. "The recent refocus on naval nuclear capabilities has likely been welcomed by the Korean People's Navy."
Here is what we know about North Korea's navy and its latest advancements.
HOW BIG IS NORTH KOREA'S NAVY?
The Korean People's Army Naval Force (KPANF) has about 470 surface vessels, including guided missile ships, torpedo boats, small patrol vessels, and fire support boats, according to the South Korean military's 2022 Defense White Paper.
Its has about 70 submarines, including Romeo-class vessels of Soviet-era design, and midget submarines.
The navy also has about 40 support craft and 250 landing craft.
The navy is divided into two fleet commands that cover the country's east and west coasts, and about 60 percent of the force is positioned south of Pyongyang, the White Paper said.
"The North Korean Naval Force possesses the capacity to carry out a surprise attack any time," the paper said. "However, its capacity for deep-sea operations is limited because its force is primarily consisted of small, high-speed vessels."
WHAT ARE THE NAVY'S NEW WEAPONS?
In March and April North Korea tested what it said was a nuclear-capable unmanned underwater attack weapon.
Dubbed "Haeil", or tsunami, the new drone system is intended to make sneak attacks in enemy waters and destroy naval strike groups and major operational ports with an underwater explosion, state media said.
Analysts said the weapon's operational concept was similar to Russia's Poseidon nuclear torpedoes, a new category of retaliatory weapon meant to create destructive, radioactive blasts in coastal areas.
However, a report by the Washington-based 38 North at the time said the weapon's slow speed and limited range made it substantially inferior to the North’s existing nuclear-armed ballistic and cruise missiles in terms of time-to-target, accuracy and lethality.
In August, Kim inspected a new Amnok-class corvette, a patrol ship that state media said was capable of firing nuclear-armed cruise missiles.
"Despite the fact that the majority of the weapons and sensors on board are severely obsolete in comparison with western or Asian designs, it is a major step forward for North Korea," the specialist website Naval News said in an analysis, calling its nuclear cruise missile capability a "game changer" for potential adversaries.
On Friday, North Korea said it had launched its first operational "tactical nuclear attack submarine" and assigned it to the eastern fleet.
The vessel appears to be a modified Romeo-class submarine with 10 launch tubes, most likely armed with ballistic missiles and cruise missiles.
South Korean officials said it appears that the new submarine may not be fully functional, but they did not elaborate.
Like the nuclear drone, its use in a war may be limited compared with North Korea's more robust land-based missiles, analysts said.
"Their submarines just aren't going to be able to be as survivable as their land-based forces," said Vann Van Diepen, a former U.S. government weapons expert who works with 38 North. "And they'll have a hard time deploying enough missiles at sea to make a big difference." (Reuters)