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April
IMF sees stronger global growth as some COVID clouds begin to clear
Written by Nur Yasmin
Jakarta. The International Monetary Fund said on Tuesday unprecedented public spending to fight the COVID-19 pandemic, primarily by the United States, would push global growth to 6% this year, a rate unseen since the 1970s.
The IMF raised its 2021 growth forecast from 5.5% less than three months ago, reflecting a rapidly brightening outlook for the U.S. economy, which the IMF now sees growing by 6.4% in 2021 -- the fastest since the early 1980s.
The U.S. forecast was raised by 1.3 percentage points from the IMF’s 5.1% 2021 projection in late January and nearly double the rate it estimated last October.
IMF Chief Economist Gita Gopinath said the improvement was largely due to increased fiscal support, including a new $1.9 trillion U.S. aid package, accelerated vaccinations and continued adaptation of economic activity to overcome pandemic restrictions.
“Even with high uncertainty about the path of this pandemic, a way out of this health economic crisis is increasingly visible,” Gopinath told a news conference.
However, she warned that the pandemic was still far from defeated and coronavirus cases were still rising in many countries.
“Recoveries are diverging dangerously across and within countries, as economies with slower vaccine rollout, more limited policy support and more reliance on tourism do less well,” Gopinath said.
Forecasts for emerging market economies, while somewhat improved, lagged well behind their developed peers, rising just 0.4 percentage point - half of the advanced economy mark-up - to 6.7% from the view in January.
If realized, the IMF’s 6% global growth forecast for 2021 would mark the fastest pace since 1976 but also comes off the steepest annual downturn of the post-war era last year as the pandemic brought commerce around the world to a near stand-still at times. The fund said the world economy contracted 3.3% in 2020, a modest upgrade from an estimated contraction of 3.5% in its January update.
The latest World Economic Outlook - released at the start of the IMF’s and World Bank’s spring meetings - reflects a dramatic divergence between the outlook for the United States and much of the rest of the world courtesy of another $1.9 trillion in pandemic relief spending recently enacted in Washington.
The outlooks for other advanced economy heavyweights, such as Germany, France and Japan, hardly improved at all since January. Nonetheless, with the heft of the U.S. outlook improvement as the main driver, the IMF marked up its advanced economy growth estimate to 5.1% from 4.3%.
The United States economy this year will join China in regaining a level of gross domestic product that exceeds where it stood before the pandemic struck just over a year ago, the IMF said. China recaptured all of its lost growth by the end of 2020.
China’s growth forecast for 2021 was raised by 0.3 percentage point to 8.4%, an increase that Gopinath said largely reflected external demand for Chinese exports, driven largely by the U.S. stimulus spending. But she said that consumer spending in China was still lagging, and growth was primarily being driven by public investments.
The IMF emphasized the high degree of uncertainty surrounding the outlook, and that improvements could easily be tripped up by any of several factors, with success against the pandemic topping the list.
“Greater progress with vaccinations can uplift the forecast, while new virus variants that evade vaccines can lead to a sharp downgrade,” it said.
Another big risk centers around the persistence of accommodative policies, from the United States in particular.
Long-term interest rates around the world have risen sharply since January, as market participants revise their expectations for how soon the U.S. Federal Reserve begins to normalize its policy stance. (Reuters)
April
Global COVID-19 death toll surpasses 3 million amid new infections resurgence
Written by Nur Yasmin
Jakarta. Coronavirus-related deaths worldwide crossed 3 million on Tuesday, according to a Reuters tally, as the latest global resurgence of COVID-19 infections is challenging vaccination efforts across the globe.
Worldwide COVID-19 deaths are rising once again, especially in Brazil and India. Health officials blame more infectious variants that were first detected in the United Kingdom and South Africa, along with public fatigue with lockdowns and other restrictions.
(Open tmsnrt.rs/34pvUyi in an external browser for global COVID graphic)
According to a Reuters tally, it took more than a year for the global coronavirus death toll to reach 2 million. The next 1 million deaths were added in about three months.
Brazil is leading the world in the daily average number of new deaths reported and accounts for one in every four deaths worldwide each day, according to a Reuters analysis.
The World Health Organization acknowledged the nation’s dire condition due to coronavirus, saying the country is in a very critical condition with an overwhelmed healthcare system.
“Indeed there is a very serious situation going on in Brazil right now, where we have a number of states in critical condition,” WHO epidemiologist Maria Van Kerkhove told a briefing last Thursday, adding that many hospital intensive care units are more than 90% full.
India reported a record rise in COVID-19 infections on Monday, becoming the second nation after the United States to post more than 100,000 new cases in a day.
India’s worst-affected state, Maharashtra on Monday began shutting shopping malls, cinemas, bars, restaurants, and places of worship, as hospitals are being overrun by patients.
The European region, which includes 51 countries, has the highest total number of deaths at nearly 1.1 million.
Five European countries including the United Kingdom, Russia, France, Italy and Germany constitute about 60% of Europe’s total coronavirus-related deaths.
The United States has the highest number of deaths of any country at the world at 555,000 and accounts for about 19% of all deaths due to COVID-19 in the world. Cases have risen for the last three weeks but health officials believe the nation’s rapid vaccination campaign may prevent a rise in deaths. A third of the population has received at least one dose of a vaccine.
At least 370.3 million people or nearly 4.75% of the global population have received a single dose of COVID-19 vaccine by Sunday, according to latest figures from research and data provider firm Our World in Data.
However, the World Health Organization is urging countries to donate more doses of approved COVID-19 vaccines to help meet vaccination targets for the most vulnerable in poorer countries. (Reuters)
April
IMF favors global minimum corporate tax - chief economist
Written by Nur Yasmin
Jakarta. The International Monetary Fund has long favored adoption of a global minimum tax on corporate profits, the Fund’s chief economist, Gita Gopinath, told reporters on Tuesday, calling tax avoidance a troubling issue for the global economy.
Gopinath said current disparities in national corporate tax rates had triggered “a large amount” of tax shifting and tax avoidance, reducing the tax base on which governments could collect revenues to fund needed economic and social spending.
“It is a big concern,” Gopinath told reporters during an online briefing. “We are very much in favor of a global minimum corporate tax.”
French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire said on Tuesday a global deal on cross-border taxation was within reach as he welcomed a pledge by U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen to work on a global corporate minimum rate.
Gopinath said the IMF had not taken a position on the ideal level for such a tax rate, adding that governments would need to replenish their coffers after massive spending to contain the COVID-19 pandemic and mitigate its economic impact.
“The hope is that they will move forward better to have more inclusive, sustainable, green economies, and that would require measures both on the revenue side and on the expenditure side,” she said, adding that each country would have to carefully tailor its own actions on the tax front.
Gopinath said the IMF was still studying the Biden administration’s proposal to raise the corporate tax rate to 28%, but noted that the former Trump administration’s decision to lower that tax rate from 35% to 21% in 2017 had had less impact on investment than initially expected.
U.S. President Joe Biden on Monday said there was “no evidence” that raising the corporate tax rate by seven percentage points would drive business abroad.
White House press secretary Jen Psaki noted that the 28% rate would be lower than it was at any time since World War Two. (Reuters)
April
Valneva's COVID-19 shot set for Phase Three trial this month
Written by Nur Yasmin
Jakarta. Valneva on Tuesday reported positive results for its COVID-19 vaccine in early stage clinical trials and said it planned to launch a Phase Three trial this month.
The French drugmaker, whose shot uses the technology behind its licensed Japanese encephalitis vaccine, tested its vaccine in 153 adults with three dose levels based on a schedule of two doses with vaccinations three weeks apart.
Valneva shares were up 8% in early trading.
The vaccine, Valneva said, was “generally safe and well tolerated across all dose groups tested, with no safety concerns identified by an independent Data Safety Monitoring Board”.
Valneva said the vaccine, for which the U.S. company Dynavax supplies an adjuvant, was also “highly immunogenic”, with “more than 90% of all study participants” developing significant levels of antibodies to the coronavirus spike protein.
“Based on the data assessed, the company has decided to advance the high dose into the phase 3 clinical trial. Other trials, including booster trials, involving antigen sparing doses will also be evaluated,” Valneva said.
The company added that it was working with authorities in Britain to review plans including for potential variant vaccine development and supply.
Valneva has signed a deal with Britain for up to 190 million doses by 2025 in a transaction potentially worth up to 1.4 billion euros ($1.65 billion). The company is also in talks with the European Union to supply it with 60 million doses.
The company said it intended to submit the vaccine for approval in Britain in the autumn of this year and said discussions with other regulatory bodies were ongoing. (Reuters)
April
Clear link between AstraZeneca vaccine and rare blood clots in brain, EMA official tells paper
Written by Nur Yasmin
Jakarta. There is a link between AstraZeneca’s COVID-19 vaccine and very rare blood clots in the brain but the possible causes are still unknown, a senior official for the European Medicines Agency (EMA) said in an interview published on Tuesday.
However, the EMA later said in a statement that its review of the vaccine was ongoing and it expected to announce its findings on Wednesday or Thursday. An AstraZeneca spokesman declined to comment on the matter.
“In my opinion, we can now say it, it is clear that there is an association (of the brain blood clots) with the vaccine. However, we still do not know what causes this reaction,” Marco Cavaleri, chair of the vaccine evaulation team at the EMA, told Italian daily Il Messagero.
Cavaleri provided no evidence to support his comment.
The EMA has repeatedly said the benefits of the AstraZeneca shot outweigh the risks as it investigates 44 reports of an extremely rare brain clotting ailment known as cerebral venous sinus thrombosis (CVST) out of 9.2 million people in the European Economic Area who have received the vaccine.
The World Health Organization has also backed the vaccine.
AstraZeneca has said previously its studies have found no higher risk of clots because of its vaccine.
Cavaleri said the EMA would say in its review that there is a link but was not likely to give an indication this week regarding the age of individuals to whom the AstraZeneca shot should be given.
Some countries, including France, Germany and the Netherlands, have suspending the use of the vaccine in younger people while the investigations continue.
REVIEW ONGOING
In response to Cavaleri’s comments, the Amsterdam-based EMA said in a statement on Tuesday: “EMA’s Pharmacovigilance Risk Assessment Committee (PRAC) has not yet reached a conclusion and the review (of any possible link) is currently ongoing.”
The EMA said last week that its review had at present not identified any specific risk factors, such as age, gender or a previous medical history of clotting disorders, for these very rare events. A causal link with the vaccine is not proven, but is possible and further analysis is continuing, the agency said.
A high proportion among the reported cases affected young and middle-aged women but that did not lead EMA to conclude this cohort was particularly at risk from AstraZeneca’s shot.
Scientists are exploring several possibilities that might explain the extremely rare brain blood clots that occurred in individuals in the days and weeks after receiving the AstraZeneca vaccine.
European investigators have put forward one theory that the vaccine triggers an unusual antibody in some rare cases; others are trying to understand whether the cases are linked with birth control pills.
But many scientists say there is no definitive evidence and it is not clear whether or why AstraZeneca’s vaccine would cause an issue not shared by other vaccines that target a similar part of the coronavirus.
In a separate interview, Armando Genazzani, a member of the EMA’s Committee for Medicinal Products for Human Use (CHMP), told La Stampa daily that it was “plausible” that the blood clots were correlated with the AstraZeneca vaccine.
The AstraZeneca vaccine is based on a modified chimpanzee adenovirus vector, ChAdOx1, developed at Oxford University, and is one of several adenovirus-vector COVID-19 vaccines. The current vaccine rollout represents the first use of viral vector vaccines on such a global scale. (Reuters)
April
Japan fears COVID-19 variants are behind possible fourth wave
Written by Nur Yasmin
Jakarta. Japanese health authorities are concerned that variants of the coronavirus are driving a nascent fourth wave in the pandemic with just 109 days remaining until the Tokyo Olympics.
The variants appear to be more infectious and may be resistant to vaccines, which are still not widely available in Japan. The situation is worst in Osaka, where infections hit fresh records last week, prompting the regional government to start targeted lockdown measures for one month from Monday.
A mutant COVID-19 variant first discovered in Britain has taken hold in the Osaka region, spreading faster and filling up hospital beds with more serious cases than the original virus, according to Koji Wada, a government adviser on the pandemic.
“The fourth wave is going to be larger,” said Wada, a professor at Tokyo’s International University of Health and Welfare. “We need to start to discuss how we could utilize these targeted measures for the Tokyo area.”
Japan has twice declared a state of emergency that covered most of the country in the past year, most recently just after New Year as the pandemic’s third and most deadly wave struck. Officials are now opting for more targeted measures that allow local governments to shorten business hours and impose fines for noncompliance.
Osaka city cancelled Olympic Torch relay events there, but Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga has insisted Japan will carry out the Games as scheduled. Suga said on Sunday that measures employed in the Osaka area could be expanded to Tokyo and elsewhere if needed.
There were 249 new infections in Tokyo on Monday, still well below the peak of over 2,500 in January. In Osaka, the tally was 341, down from a record 666 cases on Saturday.
The true extent of the mutant cases is unknown, as only a small fraction of positive COVID-19 cases undergo the genomic study necessary to find the variants.
A health ministry report last week showed 678 cases of variants from Britain, South Africa, and Brazil had been discovered nationwide and at airports, with the biggest clusters in Osaka and nearby Hyogo prefecture.
Those three all have the N501Y mutation, and the latter two also have the E484K mutation. Authorities in Japan have found more than 1,000 cases that only have E484K.
That variant was present in about 70% of coronavirus patients tested at a Tokyo hospital last month, Japanese public broadcaster NHK said on Sunday.
The rebound in cases came within weeks of the government lifting state of emergency measures, and the priority measures being rolled out now are intended to halt an unexpected rise in mutant cases, said Makoto Shimoaraiso, a Cabinet Secretariat official for Japan’s COVID-19 response.
“We take the criticism when people say that we have not been able to detect any variants,” he said. (Reuters)
April
Singapore to accept COVID-19 digital travel pass from next month
Written by Nur Yasmin
Jakarta. Singapore will next month accept visitors who use a mobile travel pass containing digital certificates for COVID-19 tests and vaccines, its aviation regulator said on Monday, becoming one of the first countries to adopt the initiative.
Singapore will accept the International Air Transport Association (IATA) mobile travel pass for pre-departure checks, where travelers can get clearance to fly to and enter Singapore by showing a smartphone application containing their data from accredited laboratories.
The pass was successfully tested by Singapore Airlines. More than 20 carriers, including Emirates, Qatar Airways and Malaysia Airlines, are also testing the pass.
“The success of our joint efforts will make IATA’s partnership with the government of Singapore a model for others to follow,” IATA director general Willie Walsh said in a statement.
Asian business hub Singapore, which has had relatively few coronavirus cases this year, has been a leader in developing and using technology during the pandemic and wants to be among the first countries to reopen to host international events.
Airlines are hoping more countries will approve digital passes on apps to allow travel to resume faster and avoid complications and delays at airports where multiple checks on documents are required.
Currently, travelers from most countries are required to take pre-departure COVID-19 swab tests within 72 hours of their flights in order to travel to Singapore, with results presented at airport check-in and on arrival. (Reuters)
April
Vietnam picks ex-state security official Chinh as new PM
Written by Nur Yasmin
Jakarta. Vietnam’s National Assembly confirmed the nomination of Pham Minh Chinh, a career security official, as the Southeast Asian country’s next prime minister at an official ceremony on Monday.
Chinh, 62, was the sole nominee put forward by the ruling Communist Party for the post at a congress earlier this year. He won 96.25% of the vote at an official National Assembly vote on Monday.
He was formerly head of the Party’s powerful and influential Central Organisation Commission which has long reach across Party ranks.
He will replace former Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc, who was confirmed earlier on Monday as the country’s new president, a predominantly ceremonial role.
Chinh was previously party chief of the northern province of Quang Ninh and deputy head of the Ministry of Public Security, the country’s powerful internal security agency.
He will be the first Vietnamese prime minister not to have previously served as a deputy prime minister since the launch of Vietnam’s progressive “Doi Moi” reforms.
Vietnam has no paramount ruler and is officially led by four “pillars”: the powerful General Secretary of the Communist Party, a state president, a governing prime minister and the chair of the National Assembly, a largely rubber-stamp legislature.
The main candidates for each post had all been widely known in Hanoi’s political circles, but were officially declared top secret in December last year in order to discourage potentially critical debate.
The Party retains tight control of media and tolerates little criticism. (Reuters)
April
ASEAN leaders to meet over Myanmar, chair Brunei says
Written by Nur Yasmin
Jakarta. Brunei, the chair of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries, on Monday threw its support behind a regional leaders’ meeting to discuss developments in Myanmar and said it has asked officials to prepare for a meeting in Jakarta.
Myanmar has been in crisis since a Feb. 1 military coup that ousted the elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi. Activists say at least 557 people have since been killed in a crackdown by security forces on protests and strikes across the country, where the junta has restricted internet access.
Indonesia has led efforts by members of ASEAN, of which Myanmar is a member, to encourage a negotiated solution, despite a longstanding policy of not commenting on each other’s domestic problems.
In a joint statement with Malaysia, Brunei said both countries have asked their ministers and senior officials to undertake “necessary preparations for the meeting that will be held at the ASEAN Secretariat in Jakarta, Indonesia.”
The statement followed a meeting between Malaysian Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin and Brunei Sultan Hassanal Bolkiah on Monday.
“Both leaders agreed for ASEAN leaders to meet to discuss the ongoing developments in Myanmar,” they said.
They did not say when the meeting would be held.
Both leaders expressed concern over the rising number of fatalities in Myanmar.
“They urged all parties to refrain from instigating further violence, and for all sides to immediately exercise utmost restraint and flexibility,” according to the statement.
ASEAN operates by consensus but the divergent views of its 10 members on how to respond to the army’s use of lethal force against civilians and the group’s policy of non-interference has limited its ability to act.
Malaysia, Indonesia, the Philippines and Singapore have all expressed alarm over the killings of demonstrators and support an urgent high-level meeting on Myanmar.
Their foreign ministers each separately held talks last week with their counterpart in China, Myanmar’s influential northern neighbour. (Reuters)
April
East Timor receives first batch of COVID-19 vaccines to begin inoculation drive this week
Written by Nur Yasmin
Jakarta. East Timor received its first batch of coronavirus vaccine on Monday, arranged by the global vaccine sharing scheme COVAX, the European Union, which backs the initiative said, as the tiny Southeast Asian nation readies to start an inoculation drive on Wednesday.
A total of 24,000 doses has arrived as planned from the facility which plans to provide vaccines enough to cover 20% of the country’s population of 1.3 million.
The former Portuguese colony has detected 714 cases of the coronavirus, most of which it said were imported, and no casualty so far.
But its porous border with Indonesia, which has recorded around 1.53 million COVID-19 cases and 41,600 deaths as of Sunday, has raised concern the virus could spread and wreak havoc on East Timor’s poorly equipped healthcare system.
East Timor put its capital city on a coronavirus lockdown last month for the first time amid fears of a local outbreak. (Reuters)