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International News (6888)

12
June

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Japanese ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) Secretary General Toshimitsu Motegi said on Monday he could think of no reason why the cabinet of Prime Minister Fumio Kishida deserved a vote of no-confidence that could trigger a snap election.

An election for parliament's more powerful lower house is not due until 2025, but Kishida is looking to solidify his strength in the LDP ahead of a leadership race next fall, so as to ensure his re-election and retain the premiership.

Public support for Kishida was 43% in the latest poll, released on Monday by public broadcaster NHK, down 3 points from last month, though the disapproval rating rose 6 points to 37%. (Reuters)

12
June

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North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has vowed to "hold hands" with Russian President Vladimir Putin and bolster strategic cooperation on their shared goal of building a powerful country, state media KCNA reported on Monday.

Kim made the pledge in a message to Putin marking Russia's National Day, defending his decision to invade Ukraine and displaying "full support and solidarity."

"Justice is sure to win and the Russian people will continue to add glory to the history of victory," Kim said in the message published by KCNA.

Kim called for "closer strategic cooperation" with Moscow, "holding hands firmly with the Russian president, in conformity with the common desire of the peoples of the two countries to fulfil the grand goal of building a powerful country," it added.

North Korea has sought to forge closer ties with the Kremlin and backed Moscow after it invaded Ukraine last year, blaming the "hegemonic policy" and "high-handedness" of the United States and the West. (Reuters)

09
June

 

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The Japanese government on Friday called for households and industries around Tokyo to save electricity in July and August to ensure a stable power supply during the peak summer season, though it did not set any numerical targets.

The country's power market is predicted to be less tight this summer in most of the regions than last summer when the government asked for energy conservation across the nation, according to the industry ministry's forecast in May.

But the ministry has decided to ask for the power saving "within a reasonable range" during the two months in the areas, where power is supplied by the Tokyo Electric Power Company Holdings (9501.T), as the reserve ratio is estimated to be below 5%, close to the minimum 3% that ensures stable supply.

The expected reserve ratio, in the event of a once-in-a-decade heat wave, in the Tokyo region is 3.1% for July and 4.8% for August, whereas the figures elsewhere stand above 5% for both months, according to the ministry.

The reserve capacity ratio below 3% risks power shortages and blackouts.

Last year, the highest temperatures for the season since record-keeping began scorched much of eastern Japan for a week in June, prompting the government to ask citizens to cut power use as much as possible.

The government has not implemented any special measures for June, but it is monitoring power generators' operations and electricity demand this month, an official at the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry said. (Reuters)

09
June

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The risk of Australia's economy slipping into recession has risen sharply, after the central bank surprised markets this week by raising rates and warned it could tighten again to tamp down on high inflation even at the cost of preserving jobs.

For a year, Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Philip Lowe has been talking of successfully navigating a narrow path to lower inflation while keeping unemployment near 50-year lows.

But this week the governor's tone changed.

After a surprise rate rise to 4.10% and a hawkish promise of even more to come, Lowe warned the narrow path would also be bumpy and that getting high inflation down would take priority over preserving jobs.

The shift led economists, some who thought rates had peaked at 3.6% when the RBA paused its tightening cycle in April, to factor in at least one more rate rise and a genuine risk of a recession, the nation's first in more three decades outside the sharp downturn at the start of the COVID pandemic in 2020.

"Combined with the hikes already delivered, we see this as likely stalling the economy... with a high risk of outright recession," said Paul Bloxham, HSBC's chief economist for Australia, New Zealand and Global Commodities.

He expects quarterly growth to average just a 0.1% over the next four quarters, with a 50% chance that the economy would enter a recession. Further, Bloxham expects the RBA to start cutting rates in the second quarter of 2024.

Commonwealth Bank of Australia on Friday puts the odds of a recession this year at 50%, predicting growth to slow to an annual rate of 0.7% in the last quarter and jobless rate picking up to 4.7% in mid-2024.

Growth is already slowing to sub-par levels, with data this week showing the economy grew just 0.2% in the March quarter as struggling households ran down savings and cut back on spending.

With the full effect of the hefty monetary policy tightening - 400 basis points since last May, including 100 basis points since February - yet to be felt through the economy, bond markets are starting to price in recession risks.

The bond yield curve has now inverted, considered a signal of recession fears. On Friday morning, two-year yields stood at 4.018%, 6 basis points above the 10-year yields but almost 8 basis points below the cash rate.

Having been caught off guard by the rate rises in May and June, markets are now pricing in a peak rate of 4.5%, suggesting a risk of two more hikes to 4.6%.

INFLATION EXPECTATION

Lowe had signalled his comfort with a mid-2025 timeline to get inflation back into the 2-3 % target range so as to preserve job gains, but this week said that patience had a limit.

"I want to make it clear, though, that the desire to preserve the gains in the labour market does not mean that the Board will tolerate higher inflation persisting," he said on Wednesday.

Jonathan Kearns, chief economist at investment firm Challenger and a former RBA executive, says the risk of trying to hold on to job gains was that higher inflation expectations hardened and kept the actual inflation rate high.

"That's where he seems to come around a bit more now. And pushing rates higher is increasing the chance that Australia goes into a recession," said Kearns, who headed the RBA's domestic markets department until earlier this year.

Kearns expects two more hikes to 4.6%.

A survey of union officials cited by Lowe showed that medium-term inflation expectations have risen to a 3-4% range.

In particular, a large pay rise for minimum wage workers last week has stoked concerns it could set a benchmark for other wage claims, after Lowe flagged rising unit labour costs as a risk.

"They seem very resolved to get inflation down and if it has to be a bumpy landing, I think that's a price they're prepared to pay," said Ivan Colhoun, chief economist of markets for National Australia Bank. (Reuters)

09
June

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South Korea summoned China's ambassador on Friday to issue a protest, describing comments made by the envoy warning Seoul against making "wrong bets" in the Sino-U.S. rivalry as "provocative" and a possible interference in internal affairs.

Xing Haiming made the remarks during a meeting late on Thursday with Lee Jae-myung, head of South Korea's main opposition party, where he also urged Seoul to stop "decoupling" from China and restore economic and diplomatic ties.

Xing blamed Seoul for creating "difficulties" in bilateral ties by failing to respect Beijing's core interests, including over Taiwan, while being influenced by the United States.

"China-South Korea relations face many difficulties. Frankly, the blame does not lie with China," he said, according to a statement released by the embassy. "We hope that the South Korean side will faithfully keep its promise and clearly respect China's core concerns, such as the Taiwan issue."

Xing warned against making the "wrong judgment" on China because of the "interference of external factors" such as U.S. pressure.

"I can assure you, those who bet on China's defeat will definitely regret it," he said.

South Korea's first vice foreign minister Chang Ho-jin summoned Xing to warn about the "provocative" remarks and to express "strong regret," South Korea's foreign ministry said.

Openly criticising Seoul's policy with "untrue content and intolerable expressions" could constitute an act of interfering in domestic politics, Chang said.

Lee's opposition party has criticised President Yoon Suk Yeol for what it says is the administration's lopsided diplomacy toward the U.S. alliance at the expense of ties with China, its top trading partner.

"Vice minister Chang clearly warned Ambassador Xing ... that he will be responsible for all the consequences," the ministry said in a statement.

Yoon has sought to tread cautiously amid intensifying U.S.-China competition, but Seoul and Beijing exchanged heated words in April over his comments on Taiwan, which China claims as its own territory.

In an interview with Reuters, Yoon said that flaring tensions around Taiwan were due to attempts to change the status quo by force, and said that he opposed such a change.

Xing also brought up economic ties and said South Korea's trade deficits had worsened because of its efforts to "decouple" from China, but it could "enjoy the bonus" from Chinese economic growth if its confidence in bilateral ties are restored.

"The two countries have built an inextricable economic structure in which their industrial and supply chains are closely connected," he said. (Reuters)

07
June

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China and Russia conducted a joint air patrol on Tuesday over the Sea of Japan and East China Sea for a sixth time since 2019, prompting neighbouring South Korea and Japan to scramble fighter jets.

China's defence ministry said the patrol was part of the two militaries' annual cooperation plan. South Korea scrambled fighter jets, according to its military, after four Russian and four Chinese military aircraft entered its air defence zone in the south and east of the Korean peninsula.

Japan's military said it had scrambled fighter jets after verifying that two Russian bombers had joined two Chinese bombers over the Sea of Japan and flown together as far as the East China Sea, where they were joined by two Chinese fighter planes.

In China's last joint aerial patrol with Russia in November, South Korea also scrambled fighter jets after Chinese H-6K bombers and Russian TU-95 bombers and SU-35 fighter jets entered its Air Defence Identification Zone (KADIZ).

Japan similarly scrambled jets when Chinese bombers and two Russian drones flew into the Sea of Japan.

An air defence zone is an area where countries demand that foreign aircraft take special steps to identify themselves. Unlike a country's airspace - the air above its territory and territorial waters - there are no international rules governing air defence zones.

The joint aerial patrols, which began before Russia sent its troops in Ukraine and Beijing and Moscow declared their "no-limits" partnership, are a result of long expanding bilateral ties built partly on a mutual sense of threat from the United States and other military alliances.

In their May 2022 patrols, Chinese and Russian warplanes neared Japan's airspace as Tokyo hosted a Quad summit with the leaders of the United States, India and Australia, alarming Japan even though China said the flights were not directed at third parties.

'THOUSANDS OF MILES'

China's increasing military assertiveness in the region has coincided with an increase in military manoeuvres and drills by the United States and its allies in the region.

Since last week, the coast guard of the United States, Japan and the Philippines have held their first trilateral naval exercise in the South China Sea.

The White House said on Monday that recent encounters between U.S. and Chinese forces in the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea reflect a growing aggressiveness by Beijing's military that raises the risk of an error in which "somebody gets hurt."

Over the weekend, a Chinese warship came within 150 yards (137 metres) of a U.S. destroyer while the U.S. and Canadian navies were conducting a joint exercise in the sensitive Taiwan Strait, prompting complaints about the safety of the manoeuvre.

Shortly before that, a video showed a Chinese fighter jet passing in front of a U.S. plane's nose with the cockpit of the RC-135 shaking in the turbulence caused by the flight.

"U.S. military ships and aircraft have travelled thousands of miles to provoke China at its doorstep," China's foreign ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin said during a regular news conference on Tuesday.

"Insisting on conducting close reconnaissance and flexing its muscles near China's territorial waters and airspace is not safeguarding freedom of navigation, but promoting of navigation hegemony and is a blatant military provocation," he said. (Reuters)

07
June

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After two weeks of continuous heavy rains, a farmer surnamed Chen in China's Henan province surveys bent stalks of saturated wheat in sodden fields that will take days to dry out before harvesting can start.

The rains are also causing the kernels on his wheat crop to begin sprouting early, which, more crucially, means the grain will produce lower quality flour unsuitable for noodles or bread. That could mean a large chunk of the crop will end up being sold as less valuable animal feed, or even abandoned.

"Look, all this wheat has sprouted," Chen told Reuters, pouring kernels into his hand while standing in his fields about 40 km (25 miles) north of the town of Zhumadian. Chen plants about 2 acres (0.8 hectares) of wheat every year.

About one-third of China's wheat is grown in Henan province, earning it the nickname the granary of China. With roughly 30 million metric tons expected to be affected nationally by the rains, out of a forecast bumper crop for all of China of 137 million metric tons, the losses may mean rising grain imports into the world's biggest wheat consumer.

About a third of the wheat across southern Henan has sprouted, said a harvester driver operating on a nearby farm who has worked his way north from Anhui province over the last week. He declined to give his name.

The rains have also impacted neighbouring provinces like Anhui, Shanxi and Shandong, though it's too early to say how extensive the damage is, but it could increase the need for more overseas grain.

"Imports of wheat into China are already going up. If there is damage to the crop ... then it's likely that China will need to increase its imports next year. So obviously that would have an impact on global prices and an impact on global markets," said Darin Friedrichs, co-founder of Shanghai-based Sitonia Consulting.

However, China's large grain stocks should protect against any impact on food prices, he said.

Any higher imports would also come just as the El Nino weather pattern is set to sharply reduce output in major wheat producer Australia and as the ongoing war in Ukraine continues to curtail its grain exports.

A DISASTER

For farmers like Chen, incomes will take a hit.

China's Agriculture Minister Tang Renjian visited Zhumadian and other impacted areas this week and urged "extraordinary measures" to harvest the wheat, according to a ministry statement on Monday.

The Henan government is urging insurance providers to cover early sprouting damage and quickly settle claims, the ministry said.

It has also ordered state grain buyers to purchase lower quality wheat at above-market prices.

A Xiping-based grain dealer surnamed Wang is paying growers 2,100 yuan ($295) per metric ton of germinated wheat, about 75% of the market price for food-grade wheat.

The wheat kernels she has bought have all more or less sprouted, Wang said. "These (sprouted) wheat have a bad taste as they are sticky and doesn't mix well to make dough."

But for damp wheat still unharvested, the price could be even lower, unless it dries up soon.

Only three-quarters of Henan's crop had been harvested as of Tuesday, compared with 90% this time last year, according to state media.

Farmers are digging trenches or using pumps to drain water off their fields so harvesting can start.

"I think that we will have to wait four or five days before harvesting," said Chen.

"This is really a disaster." (Reuters)

07
June

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A North Korean youth group has donated rocket launchers to the military in a show of "fervent patriotism", state media KCNA reported on Wednesday, as the isolated state confronts what it sees as growing foreign threats.

The donation of military equipment took place at a ceremony on Tuesday as the Korean Children's Union (KCU), a political youth group, celebrated its 77th anniversary.

The KCU, whose members are known for their red scarfs, was set up to promote the North's political ideology including "Juche", or self reliance.

In recent months, North Korea has stepped up propaganda efforts and public messaging, including the staging of rallies at which effigies of South Korean and American leaders have been burned, as its missile and nuclear programmes raise growing alarm abroad.

North Korea has defied U.N. Security Council resolutions by test firing various missiles, including its biggest intercontinental ballistic missile this year.

Last week, it drew international condemnation by attempting to launch its first spy satellite, although the rocket and the payload plunged into the sea.

Tuesday's ceremony was attended by senior ruling party officials, KCNA reported. It did not say how the funds were raised for the military equipment.

The donated rocket launchers were dubbed "Sonyeon", which means boy in Korean, although the youth group's members include boys and girls. (Reuters)

07
June

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The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development told Vietnam last week that handouts to big firms to offset higher levies under a global overhaul of tax rules would be problematic, a person familiar with the discussions said.

Reuters exclusively reported last week that Vietnam was planning subsidies worth hundreds of millions of dollars to partly compensate multinationals with big investments in the country, including Samsung Electronics (005930.KS) and Intel (INTC.O), for the higher taxes they will face from next year.

Under the new rules shepherded by the OECD, companies paying less than 15% in a low-tax jurisdiction will from January face a top-up levy either in that jurisdiction or in their home country.

Vietnam's plan is the first reported attempt worldwide to find a partial workaround to the new global rules, but other countries are considering similar moves, the person familiar with the talks said, noting the OECD warned of risks these arrangements may pose, potentially "compromising the ultimate purpose" of the reform.

The rules were mainly devised to tackle tax planning practices which have allowed multinationals to pay very low or no tax at all. Usually this is done by basing their headquarters in tax havens, such as Caribbean islands or small European states, where often they had no production activities.

Vietnam is a major manufacturing hub heavily reliant on foreign investment which it has been able to attract over the decades partly thanks to tax sweeteners, but also because of low labour costs, proximity to China, free trade deals and stable government.

Hanoi wants to introduce a top-up tax, but fears that without some sort of compensation, the higher levy could make it less attractive to large multinationals, which have been asking for compensation in private talks. In 2019, Samsung paid as little as 5.1% in tax in one province.

OECD WARNING

In meetings in Hanoi last week, OECD officials told Vietnamese government officials that if subsidies to multinationals were found to be direct compensation for the higher levy, "the domestic top-up tax would be disqualified," the person said, declining to be named because the information was not public.

The person said the OECD made it clear that large companies would therefore have to pay the top-up levy in their home country, for instance South Korea in the case of Samsung.

OECD senior tax official John Peterson declined to comment about the outcome of the meeting, citing confidentiality rules.

However, he said if one country compensates a multinational with "targeted benefits, for example in the form of grants or tax credits" it would no longer be able to raise revenues from a top-up tax.

In that case, the company "will simply be subject to additional top-up tax, equal to the same amount, in another jurisdiction."

Vietnam's government did not reply to Reuters requests for comment.

Asked about the planned measures at a press conference on Monday, Nguyen Thanh Lam, deputy information minister said: "It's a broad and complicated matter. Many government agencies are involved and studying it."

Vietnam's planned subsidies would be in the form of after-tax cash handouts or refundable tax credits, according to initial plans subject to changes, Reuters has reported.

That would benefit companies facing higher levies due to the global tax reform, but also firms which are not impacted by the overhaul, another source familiar with the separate talks between companies and the Vietnamese government told Reuters.

Decisions on compensation would be taken case by case and no direct link would be established between handouts and the top-up tax, the source added.

Asked whether the planned rules could be considered a direct subsidy to offset multinationals' higher taxes, the OECD declined to comment as Vietnam's plans had not been finalised.

Under the new rules, countries can introduce tax incentives for companies, but their laws must be reviewed and supported by tens of nations worldwide which have agreed to the global reform. (Reuters)

07
June

 

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Vanuatu Prime Minister Ishmael Kalsakau said his government "must remove the stigma" from a security agreement with Australia and work toward having it ratified by parliament, local media reported on Wednesday.

The Pacific Islands nation signed a security treaty covering disaster relief, defence, policing and cyber security with Australia in December, but during a visit by Australia Defence Minister Richard Marles on Tuesday, Vanuatu officials said the document was still being examined.

Some Vanuatu politicians who favour ties with China, a major infrastructure lender, have expressed concern over the deal.

"We must remove the stigma that the agreement is one-sided and does not reflect Vanuatu’s sovereignty," Kalsakau said in a speech, the Vanuatu Daily Post reported on Wednesday.

"Thinking that some troops from Australia will enter the country without visas and access our sovereign data will not happen unless we agree and give our informed consent," he said, referring to misinformation on social media.

Australia is already providing assistance in many security areas, including helping Vanuatu recover from a cyber attack that crippled communications in November, and cyclone recovery in March, he said, according to a government statement.

China's navy sent a ship with humanitarian supplies to Vanuatu in April after two cyclones hit in March. The vessel arrived a week after 600 Australian Defence Force personnel and the HMAS Canberra helicopter carrier had departed after a seven-week humanitarian mission.

Washington and its allies are concerned about Beijing's naval ambitions in a region occupying vital sea lanes.

Concern at becoming embroiled in strategic competition between the United States and China has prompted some domestic political backlash in neighbouring Papua New Guinea, which signed a defence agreement with the United States in May, and where a security treaty with Australia is also being delayed. (Reuters)