VOI - Voice of Indonesia | RRI - Radio Republik Indonesia

Deeper and more entrenched divisions over Russia's war in Ukraine risk derailing progress on issues such as food security, debt distress and global cooperation on climate change when the world's most powerful nations meet this weekend in New Delhi.

The hardened stance on the war has prevented agreement on even a single communique at the 20 or so ministerial meetings of the G20 during India's presidency this year, leaving it to the leaders to find a way around, if possible.

But China will be represented by Premier Li Qiang, not President Xi Jinping, while Russia has confirmed President Vladimir Putin's absence, suggesting that neither nation is likely to join any consensus.

That means the two-day summit from September 9 will be dominated by the West and its allies. The G20 leaders who will attend include U.S. President Joe Biden, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, French President Emmanuel Macron, Saudi Arabia's Mohammed Bin Salman and Japan's Fumio Kishida.

A failed summit would expose the limits of cooperation between Western and non-Western powers, and prompt countries to double down on the groups they are more comfortable with, analysts said.

To tackle global threats "breaking off into Western and non-Western blocs isn't what you want," said Michael Kugelman, the director of the South Asia Institute at the Wilson Center in Washington.

Failing to forge a consensus will also hurt the diplomatic credentials of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who is using the presidency to bolster New Delhi's position as economic powerhouse and a leader of the global south.

"If the leaders' summit is a flop, New Delhi and especially Modi will have suffered a major diplomatic, and political, setback," Kugelman said.

India, which has not condemned Russia's invasion of Ukraine, will have to either convince the bloc to agree to a joint statement - the so-called Leaders Declaration - or allow its presidency to be the first to end without such a communique since 2008.

"The positions have hardened since the Bali Summit," a senior Indian government official told Reuters, referring to the 2022 summit held in Indonesia. "Russia and China have toughened their position since then, a consensus would be very hard."

LAST MINUTE

In Bali, Indonesian President Joko Widodo clinched a last minute joint statement from the bloc. India is hoping that the leaders can again work something out at the last minute, another government official said.

The Bali Leaders' Declaration said "most members strongly condemned the war in Ukraine and stressed it is causing immense human suffering and exacerbating existing fragilities in the global economy."

It also said that "there were other views and different assessments of the situation and sanctions."

Another Indian official said that in Bali, "Russia and China were more flexible." But as the war completes 18 months, countries "are not agreeing even to the language used in the Bali Declaration".

Canada's Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, who will come in place of Putin, have already drawn battlelines.

Trudeau, while confirming that he will travel to India for the meeting in a call with Ukraine's Volodymyr Zelenskiy, said that he was disappointed that the Ukrainian president was not invited.

"As you know, we will be speaking up strongly for you, and we will continue to make sure that the world is standing with Ukraine," Trudeau said in the call with Zelenskiy.

Lavrov said last week Russia will block the final declaration of the G20 summit unless it reflects Moscow's position on Kyiv and other crises. Diplomats said any acceptance of Moscow's stance was highly improbable, and the summit would most likely end up issuing a non-binding or partial communique.

CHINA PUSHING BRICS?

Last month, the BRICS group of nations, where China is the heavyweight, added half a dozen more countries to the bloc in a push to reshuffle a world order it sees as outdated.

"Xi’s absence may be Beijing’s attempt to put a nail in the G20’s coffin, only weeks after expanding the BRICS organization which is more aligned with China’s world view," said David Boling, director at consulting firm Eurasia Group.

India is a member of BRICS, along with Russia, China, Brazil and South Africa, and had some concerns about the bloc's expansion earlier. But at the summit in Johannesburg last month, it joined a consensus on the criteria for new entrants.

In its G20 presidency, India has sought to relegate the differences over Ukraine to the background and pushed for resolution on climate change, debt for vulnerable countries, rules around cryptocurrencies and multilateral bank reforms.

New Delhi has also attempted to break an impasse over a deal that allowed the safe export of Ukrainian grain via the Black Sea, but Russia is unlikely to budge from its opposition to the plan, Indian officials said.

Over the year, there has been little progress on debt restructuring talks and a minimum global corporate tax, but India has been able to gain support from the U.S. and the IMF for over-arching global regulations on cryptocurrencies.

A G20 committee under former Indian bureaucrat N.K. Singh and economist Larry Summers, a former U.S. treasury secretary, has also proposed increasing lending by multilateral banks to developing countries. The proposal has not been agreed on yet.

Climate change goals had also divided developed and developing countries in July meetings of the group and officials said the positions are not likely to change at the summit. (Reuters)

VOInews, Jakarta: Indonesian Foreign Minister Retno Marsudi welcomed the signing of accession to the Treaty of Friendship and Cooperation (TAC) by Serbia, Panama and Kuwait.

"Today ASEAN welcomes Serbia, Panama and Kuwait as the 52nd, 53rd and 54th countries, respectively, to sign the TAC," she said during the TAC signing ceremony at the ASEAN Secretariat, Jakarta, Monday (4/9/2023).

Retno explained, over the years, the TAC has served as a collective norm and principle to form friendly relations, habits of dialogue, and peaceful coexistence in the region.

"In the midst of the current global dynamics characterized by competition and trust deficit, we must further strengthen the values of TAC to increase trust and confidence," she said.

She added that the increasing number of TAC signings showed greater positive enthusiasm. He said this modality should be utilized to further enhance stability in the region and beyond.

"The TAC should unite ASEAN and its Dialogue Partners to forge practical cooperation in addressing common challenges, ranging from climate change, food and energy security, to the proliferation of transnational organized crime," she said.

Retno also emphasized that the TAC must be a positive force for peace, stability and prosperity in the Indo-Pacific Region. "Only by fully implementing the values and principles of the TAC can we truly ensure that ASEAN matters and becomes a center of growth," she concluded.

The TAC was signed by Serbian Foreign Minister Ivica Dačić, Panamanian Deputy Foreign Minister Vladimir Franco, and Kuwaiti Deputy Foreign Minister Sheikh Jarrah Jaber Al Ahmad al Sabah.

Previously, Saudi Arabia signed the TAC on the sidelines of the 56th ASEAN Foreign Ministers Meeting (AMM) in Jakarta in July 2023, bringing the total number of countries accessing the TAC to four this year.

All Permanent Members of the UN Security Council (P5) have signed the TAC, namely China (2003), Russia (2004), France (2007), the US (2009) and the UK (2012). Meanwhile, from the G20 members, only two countries have not yet accessed, namely Italy and Mexico. (VOI/Andy)

VOInews, Jakarta: Coordinating Minister for Political, Legal and Security Affairs Mohammad Mahfud MD encouraged the implementation of the Declaration on Combating Human Trafficking Caused by the Misuse of Technology that was adopted by ASEAN Leaders last May. According to him, it is time for ASEAN countries to encourage its implementation in relevant sectoral bodies.

"We need to ensure prevention, prosecution of perpetrators, and protection of victims," he said in his remarks at the 27th ASEAN Political-Security Community Council Meeting, at the ASEAN Secretariat, Jakarta, Monday (4/9/2023).

Mahfud MD explained that this effort does not only apply to perpetrators of Trafficking in Persons (TPPO) but also to other transnational organized crimes, such as money laundering, illegal drugs, and terrorism. According to him, efforts to tackle such crimes require strong cross-border cooperation.

"Therefore, let us work together in enhancing regional cooperation in border management, cross-border legal assistance, and information exchange," he said.

Furthermore, Mahfud MD also welcomed the efforts made by the High Level Task Force which has made progress in preparing ASEAN Vision 2045. He also invited all ASEAN countries to ensure that ASEAN Vision 2045 can answer all the challenges faced today and in the future. (VOI/Andy)

VOInews, Jakarta: Foreign Minister Retno Marsudi said ASEAN Foreign Ministers will conduct a comprehensive review of the implementation of the 5-Point Consensus (5PC). The 5PC is an agreement by ASEAN leaders to respond to the Myanmar crisis consisting of constructive dialogue, cessation of violence, mediation between all parties, provision of humanitarian assistance, and sending an ASEAN delegation to Myanmar.

According to Retno Marsudi, ASEAN can only move forward fully if it can ensure a peaceful solution for Myanmar.

"We still have a lot of work to do, including the situation in Myanmar. Our chairmanship has worked hard to push for a united ASEAN solution," she said at the opening of the ASEAN Ministerial Meetings (AMM), at the ASEAN Secretariat Jakarta, Monday (4/9/2023).

She said Indonesia was aware of the many challenges faced in the region. However, according to Retno, these challenges cannot affect the hard work that has been done at the ASEAN Summit.

"The eyes of the community are on us to prove that ASEAN is still important and can contribute to peace, stability and prosperity in the region," she said.

Retno Marsudi added that over the past nine months, Indonesia has worked hard to achieve progress in the ASEAN community building efforts.

"We have prepared a strong foundation towards the ASEAN Community Vision 2045 in ASEAN Concord IV," she said.

In addition, she said, ASEAN also continues to lead in shaping regional dynamics and ensuring a peaceful and inclusive Indo-Pacific region. This is shown by the increasing number of countries acceding to the Treaty of Friendship and Cooperation (TAC) and becoming ASEAN partners.

"Today, we will also witness the establishment of Secretariat-to-Secretariat cooperation between ASEAN and IORA (Association of Indian Ocean Coastal States) and PIF (Pacific Islands Forum)," she said.

According to her, this shows the strength of ASEAN in uniting ASEAN norms and values. (VOI/Andy)