OPEC kingpin Saudi Arabia needs oil to fetch around $80 a barrel to balance its state budget while cartel ally Russia needs much lower prices of around $42 per barrel [File: Ahmed Jadallah/Reuters]
VIENNA – The OPEC and the group of non-OPEC countries, which are part of the oil production cut deal, over the next two days will come up with a response to the outbreak of the new coronavirus that has brought the oil prices down.
On Thursday, the 178th (Extraordinary) Meeting of the OPEC member states will be held in Vienna, while on Friday a meeting of the OPEC+ group, which includes major oil producers such as Russia and Mexico, will take place in the Austrian capital. The participants will decide whether to extend the existing caps on oil production and if additional cuts are needed in order to boost oil prices or at least keep them at a certain level profitable for the energy producers.
The OPEC+ Technical Committee, which convened on Tuesday, has reportedly recommended introducing extra cuts of between 600,000–1 million barrels per day (bpd). On the next day, it was followed by a meeting of the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC), tasked with assessing the oil output cut deal’s implementation and providing recommendations to keep the market balanced. Even though the final JMMC’s recommendations have not been disclosed yet, a source told Sputnik that the ministers had discussed the option of cutting the production by up to 1.5 million barrels per day on top of the existing cap of 1.7 million bpd.
Oil producers are gravely alarmed by the outbreak of the new coronavirus as it sparked expectations of a slowdown in oil demand. As a result, Brent futures fell from a peak of $71.75 per barrel in January to a 32-month low of $48.41 per barrel on Monday. On February 12, OPEC downgraded its 2020 global oil demand growth forecast by almost 20 percent to 990,000 barrels per day.
Reaching a final decision on reducing oil production is likely to be an uneasy job for the OPEC+. The signs of internal disagreements first emerged in late January, when it was reported that some members were pushing for an earlier OPEC+ meeting in light of the coronavirus. However, it was ultimately decided to stick to the initial schedule of March 5-6.
Saudi Arabia, a leader of the oil cartel, is reportedly in favor of reducing production by more than 1 million barrels per day as the country’s economy and state budget heavily rely on the oil prices. Russia, on the contrary, as a principal non-OPEC country, is believed to be satisfied with oil trading at some $40 to $50 per barrel as it does now.
Many experts have claimed that the Russian-Saudi relations suffered a breakdown, but Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak dismissed the claims and said that Moscow and Riyadh “have never had these differences.”
A source in the Russian delegation told Sputnik that at the JMMC meeting, Moscow proposed to extend the OPEC+ oil production cuts deal beyond June, without any additional caps for the second quarter of the year. After that, the Russian energy minister was seen leaving the OPEC headquarters while the meeting was still ongoing. However, he is expected to return Friday for the OPEC+ Ministerial Meeting.
NO HANDSHAKES AND HUGS
As the number of coronavirus infections continues to grow worldwide, OPEC had to introduce strict safety measures for this week’s meetings. First, the cartel has barred all journalists from entering the OPEC headquarters during the events. As a result, media professionals had to hunt down the energy officials at the entrance to the building, but the cartel was kind enough to provide some food and hot drinks to the journalists.
All participants of the JMMC meeting on Wednesday were screened for high temperature upon arrival, including the ministers themselves. The cartel has also installed a banner at the entrance calling on the visitors to “avoid handshakes and hugs.”
A video posted by OPEC on Twitter depicts the Cartel’s Secretary General Mohammed Barkindo jokingly greeting the Russian energy minister with “a leg” shake even though both of them were seen doing a handshake the same day. (Sputnik)