VOI - Voice of Indonesia | RRI - Radio Republik Indonesia

VOINews, Jakarta - A collapse in the yen is forcing Japan to scale back a historic five-year, 43.5-trillion-yen defence build-up aimed at helping to deter a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, according to eight people familiar with the matter.

Since the plan was unveiled in December, the yen has lost 10% of its value against the dollar, forcing Tokyo to reduce its ambitious defence procurement plan, which was then-calculated to cost $320 billion, the sources said.

Reuters interviewed three government officials with direct knowledge of defence procurement and five industry sources, who said Japan will begin cutting back on aircraft purchases in 2024, the second year of the build-up, due to the weak yen.

Details of how Japan is paring back military procurement due to currency fluctuations have not been previously reported. The eight people, who attended numerous meetings on the purchases, spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorised to talk to media.

Tokyo assumed an exchange rate of 108 yen to the dollar - a rate last traded at in summer 2021 - when it began formulating purchase plans in December, the eight people said. By early November, the currency dipped to 151 to the dollar. The Bank of Japan on Tuesday took a small step toward ending the decade-long monetary stimulus, which has driven yen depreciation, by tweaking bond yield controls.

Unlike large companies that do business overseas, Japan's defence ministry does not hedge against currency rate fluctuations, one of the government officials said, meaning it has few means to mitigate the rising cost in yen of Tomahawk cruise missiles and F-35 stealth fighters.

Any sign that Prime Minister Fumio Kishida will get less bang than anticipated from his military spending binge could stir unease in Washington about its key ally's ability to help contain Beijing, said Christopher Johnstone, Japan chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies think tank.

"For now, the impact is modest. But there is no question that a long-term depreciation of the yen would sap the impact of Japan's build-up, and force cuts and delays to key acquisitions," said Johnstone, a former National Security Council director for East Asia in the Biden administration.

Japan's Ministry of Defence said it does not discuss details of procurement planning when contacted for comment.

The U.S. Embassy in Tokyo said it was unable to comment. The Pentagon did not immediately return a request for comment.

BUILD-UP

Kishida described Japan's biggest defence build-up since World War Two as a "turning point in history." The spending is meant gird the nation for possible conflict around its far-flung islands stretching along the edge of the East China Sea toward Taiwan, according to defence white papers. Tokyo also shares responsibility for protecting U.S. bases on its soil that Washington could use to launch counter strikes against Chinese forces attacking the self-governing democratic island.

In December, Kishida pledged to double annual defence outlays to 2% of gross domestic product. A move to transform the war-renouncing nation into potentially the world's third-biggest military spender was seen by analysts and lawmakers as improbable until two years ago.

That changed when Russian forces rolled into Ukraine in February 2022, in an invasion that Tokyo worries will embolden Beijing to strike Taiwan.

China stoked Japanese fears again that August by firing missiles into waters close to its territory in response to then-U.S. house speaker Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan. That came after months of intensifying Chinese activity in East Asia, including joint sorties with Russian forces.

China, which has not ruled out using military force to bring Taiwan under its control, has expressed concern about Japan's military spending plans, accusing it of displaying a "Cold War mentality."

CHINOOKS AND SEAPLANES

With the cuts in its spending power, Japan decided to prioritize spending on advanced U.S.-made frontline weapons such as missiles that could halt advancing Chinese forces, the eight people said. That means less money on support aircraft and other secondary kit, much of it made by Japanese companies, they said.

In December, defence ministry officials discussed an order for 34 twin-rotor Chinook transport helicopters at roughly 15 billion yen per aircraft, two of the sources said.

In the defence budget request for the year starting April 2024, which was published in August, that order was halved to 17 because the cost of the aircraft had jumped by around 5 billion yen each since December. About half that increase was due to the weak yen, said one of the government sources, who was directly involved in those discussions.

The aircraft are assembled by Kawasaki Heavy Industries (7012.T) under license from Boeing Co (BA.N). A Kawasaki spokesperson confirmed that the unit cost increase had resulted in a reduction in the Chinook order.

Japan also scrapped a plan to buy two ShinMaywa Industries (7224.T) US-2 seaplanes used for search and rescue missions after the price per aircraft almost doubled to 30 billion yen compared with three years ago, said two other people familiar with the spending plans.

"The price has risen considerably, and that is because the weaker yen and inflation have significantly pushed up costs," a company spokesperson said. She declined to comment on whether the defence ministry had dropped an order for the seaplane.

INDUSTRY BACKLASH

For Kishida, who must grapple with rival ruling-party factions that are sparring over whether to borrow money or hike taxes to pay for his defence build-up, pruning equipment purchases may be politically less fraught than asking lawmakers for top-ups, analysts said.

"Whether Kishida decides to increase the budget or do nothing will depend on his support rate in Japan," said Yoji Koda, a retired Maritime Self Defense Force admiral, who commanded the Japanese fleet. He expects the Japanese leader to opt for procurement cuts or delays because it's easier than convincing taxpayers to fork out more money.

But, by sidestepping that challenge, Kishida is also inviting a backlash from Japanese companies that worry they will bear the brunt of cuts to ensure Tokyo can afford Raytheon (RTX.N) Tomahawks and the F-35 jets it has ordered from Lockheed Martin (LMT.N).

In a sign of growing discontent, the Japan Business Federation, the country's most influential corporate lobby, joined several defence industry associations in October to press the defence ministry for extra military procurement funds in a supplementary budget now before parliament, one of the sources said.

A ministry spokesperson confirmed the companies delivered a letter on Oct 25 to Defence Minister Minoru Kihara urging the government to proceed with the defence procurement as planned.

The business lobby declined to comment.

Defence firms will struggle to get more money because the government will want to hold off on adding to the 43 trillion-yen plan to see if the currency situation changes, said Kevin Maher at NMV Consulting in Washington, who headed the U.S. State Department's Office of Japan Affairs.

"If they think it will impact capabilities then it is possible, but I think at the earliest that would be in the next to last year of the five-year plan," he said.

($1 = 150.4000 yen) (Reuters)

VOI, Jakarta - The United States remains focused on the Indo-Pacific despite other global challenges, top U.S. diplomats said on Thursday as Secretary of State Antony Blinken prepared to go to Asia after a Middle East trip amid the Israel-Hamas conflict.

Blinken heads to Israel this week for talks on the Middle East conflict and will stop in Jordan before heading to Japan for a meeting with G7 counterparts and bilateral talks with Japanese officials and stops in South Korea and India. The trip lasts until Nov. 10.

"The Secretary's trip to the region demonstrates our enduring commitment to and focus on the Indo-Pacific, even amidst other global challenges," the top U.S. diplomat for East Asia, Daniel Kritenbrink, told reporters in previewing the Asia leg of the trip.

Kritenbrink said Blinken would attend a meeting of G7 foreign ministers in Tokyo and have separate talks with Japan's Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and Foreign Minster Yoko Kamikawa.

"We anticipate that discussions in those meetings will focus on events in the Middle East, support for Ukraine, cooperation in the Indo-Pacific, a range of bilateral issues and of course, trilateral cooperation as well with (South Korea)," he said.

Kritenbrink said Japan had been an "outstanding" G7 chair and had "kept the G7 laser-focused on the most pressing issues both globally and regionally."

He did not respond when asked if he was confident the G7 would be able to agree a robust statement on the Israel-Hamas conflict.

Asked what Blinken would tell the Asian countries about his talks last week with Chinese Foreign Minster Wang Yi, Kritenbrink said he believed they wanted to see Washington "responsibly managing our competition with China."

"Our commitment to the Indo-Pacific remains enduring," he said. "And the fundamental focus of our diplomacy in the Indo-Pacific remains strengthening our ties with allies, partners and friends, and growing their collective capacity, our shared capacity to support the rules-based international order."

The top U.S. diplomat for South Asia, Donald Wu, said "efforts to advance democracy and human rights" would be on the agenda in talks between the U.S. and Indian foreign and defense ministers "as well as our expanded cooperation in clean energy, counterterrorism, artificial intelligence, space, and semiconductor manufacturing." (Reuters)

VOI, Jakarta - The Meteorological, Climatological, and Geophysical Agency (BMKG) urged all parties to strengthen water management to ensure water supply for agriculture and communities amid the combination of El Nino and positive IOD that might trigger drought.

"Until the second dasarian (a ten-day period) of October 2023, El Nino is at a moderate level and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains positive,” Head of BMKG Dwikorita Karnawati stated in Jakarta on Thursday.

She said the BMKG and several other World Climate Centers project that El Nino will remain at a moderate level until the period of December 2023-January-February 2024, whereas positive IOD will remain until the end of 2023.

The condition will influence several sectors, such as agriculture, water resources, forestry, trade, energy, and health, she remarked.

“Thus, the government at all levels is expected to take steps to mitigate and anticipate negative impacts that might happen,” she noted.

Karnawati cautioned that in the agriculture sector, food crop production is threatened to decrease due to disturbed planting cycles, crop failure, the lack of resilience in some plants, or the spread of pests that are active during dry conditions.

In the water resources sector, this situation might lead to a decrease in water, whereas in the trade sector, it might trigger an increase in food prices, she stated.

Furthermore, in the forestry sector, it might cause wildfires. In the energy sector, it might lessen hydroelectric energy production.


In the defense sector, the condition increases the risk of health complications due to sanitation and a lack of clean water for consumption and hygiene.

“In regions that experience wildfires, this condition leads to air pollution and triggers acute respiratory infections (ISPA),” she stated.

Karnawati stated that the government can implement some strategies in an effort to mitigate the situation, with the first being strengthening water management.

The second strategy is by intensifying the dissemination of information and guidelines for farmers to adapt to the shift in seasonal patterns and select plants that are more resilient to drought.

The third approach is conducting counseling and training programs to help communities adopt an agricultural practice that is more resilient to droughts.

Under the fourth strategy, forest and land management is strengthened to prevent wildfires triggered by the dry weather.

The fifth strategy entails implementing an ecosystem rehabilitation program and land restoration for lands that have degraded due to droughts and wildfires.

The sixth approach involves setting a logistical preparation plan to ensure the supply of clean water and food, especially in vulnerable areas.

The seventh approach necessitates conducting a community awareness campaign about water conservation practices and ways to reduce the risks of disasters. (Antaranews)

VOI, Jakarta - Thousands of people swamped Pakistan's main northwestern border crossing seeking to cross into Afghanistan on Thursday, a day after the government's deadline expired for undocumented foreigners to leave or face expulsion.

Pakistani authorities began rounding up undocumented foreigners, most of them Afghans, hours before Wednesday's deadline. More than a million Afghans could have to leave or face arrest and forcible expulsion as a result of the ultimatum delivered by the Pakistan government a month ago.

Scrambling to cope with the sudden influx, the Taliban-run administration in Afghanistan said temporary transit camps had been set up, and food and medical assistance would be provided, but relief agencies reported dire conditions across the border.

"The organisations' teams stationed in the areas where people are returning from Pakistan have reported chaotic and desperate scenes among those who have returned," the Norwegian Refugee Council, Danish Refugee Council and International Rescue Committee said in a joint statement.

The Pakistani government has brushed off calls from the United Nations, rights groups and Western embassies to reconsider its expulsion plan, saying Afghans had been involved in Islamist militant attacks and in crime that undermined the security of the country.

BORDER BOTTLENECK

More than 24,000 Afghans crossed the northwestern Torkham crossing into Afghanistan on Wednesday alone, Deputy Commissioner Khyber Tribal District Abdul Nasir Khan said. "There were a large number waiting for clearance and we made extra arrangements to better facilitate the clearance process."

Authorities had worked well into the night at a camp set up near the crossing, he added. The border, at the northwestern end of the Khyber Pass on the road between Peshawar in Pakistan and Jalalabad in Afghanistan, is usually closed by sundown.

Khan said 128,000 Afghans had left through the crossing since the Pakistani government issued its directive.

Others were crossing the border at Chaman, in Pakistan's southwestern province of Balochistan.

Major roads leading to border crossings were jammed with trucks carrying families and whatever belongings they could carry.

Aid agencies estimated the number of arrivals at Torkham had risen from 300 people a day to 9,000-10,000 since last month's expulsion decree.

Some Afghans who have been ordered to leave have spent decades in Pakistan, while some have never even been to Afghanistan, and wonder how they can start a new life there.

Of the more than 4 million Afghans living in Pakistan, the government estimates 1.7 million are undocumented.

Many fled during the decades of armed conflict that Afghanistan suffered since the late 1970s, while the Islamist Taliban's takeover after the withdrawal of U.S.-led coalition forces in 2021 led to another exodus.

Aid agencies warned that the mass movement of people could tip Afghanistan into yet another crisis and expressed "grave concerns" about the survival and reintegration of the returnees, particularly with the onset of winter.

International humanitarian funding for Afghanistan dried up after the Taliban took over and imposed restrictions on women.

SHORTAGE OF TRANSPORT

Over 1,500 undocumented Afghans were being brought to the southwestern Chaman crossing after being rounded up in police raids in different areas of Pakistan, including the major port Karachi, Balochistan Information Minister Jan Achakzai said.

People crossing from Chaman into Afghanistan's Spin Boldak have run into trouble finding transport to their final destinations, said Ismatullah, a bus service operator.

"A huge number of people are coming from Karachi but face a shortage of buses and trucks," he told Reuters by phone from Spin Boldak. "Obviously in such situations the fares have increased. The (Afghan) government is helping people according to its ability, but it is not enough." (Reuters)