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Friday, 19 July 2024 11:28

Dollar set for weekly gain as traders weigh US rates, yen steady

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U.S Dollar banknotes (Photo : Matatelinga) - 

 

 

VOInews, Singapore : The dollar was poised to snap a two-week losing streak on Friday as traders pondered the U.S. rates outlook, while the yen was steady after inflation in Japan accelerated for second month in a row, keeping the prospect of a rate hike there on the table.

The U.S. dollar was on the front foot in Asian hours after a stormy week that saw the yen, euro and sterling make significant gains against the greenback as investors fully price in a rate cut from the Federal Reserve as soon as September.

The yen was at 157.35 per dollar after touching a six-week high of 155.375 on Thursday in the wake of suspected interventions by Tokyo last week that could total nearly 6 trillion yen ($38.14 billion), according to data from the Bank of Japan.

Data on Friday showed core consumer prices in Japan rose 2.6% in June, keeping alive market expectations that the central bank could soon raise interest rates.
The BOJ exited negative rates and bond yield control in March, in a shift away from a decade-long radical stimulus programme, with markets warming to the idea of a rate hike at its meeting at the end of the month.
Traders are pricing in a 41% chance of a 10 basis point hike.
The yen has fallen more than 10% against the dollar this year, weighed down by the wide difference in interest rates between the U.S. and Japan and languished around 38-year lows at the beginning of the month, spurring suspected moves by Tokyo.
"While suspected interventions do not seem to stabilize the yen, we believe monetary policy might," said Krishna Bhimavarapu, APAC economist at State Street Global Advisors.
"The time is coming for decisive action from the BoJ, and today's higher inflation has only made it more plausible."
In the U.S., data showed the number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits rose more than expected last week, though there was no material shift in the labour market.
The dollar index , which measures the U.S. currency against six rivals, was 0.1% higher at 104.24, up from a four-month low of 103.64 it touched on Wednesday. The index is set for a 0.17% gain for the week after two weeks of losses.
The Fed is scheduled to meet at the end of July, when markets anticipate a very low chance of the central bank cutting rates. Traders are pricing in 62 basis points of easing this year. 
"I think there's a lot of different crosswinds and tug of war that markets are facing right now," Michael Wan, senior currency analyst at MUFG, referring to rising bets of the Fed cutting rates coming at the same time investors are bracing for a potential victory by Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump.
Markets have reacted to the prospect of a Trump presidency by pushing the dollar higher and positioning for a steeper Treasury yield curve.
Meanwhile, the euro was little changed at $1.08880 after a 0.4% drop in the previous session as the European Central Bank kept rates steady and gave no insight into its next move.
The single currency had touched a four-month high of $1.0947 on Wednesday, recouping all the losses of the past few weeks when it came under pressure from uncertainty about the French election.
Sterling was last flat at 1.2941 after a 0.5% slide in the previous session as data showed wages in Britain grew at a slower pace, but was still strong enough to keep doubts about a rate cut from the Bank of England afloat.
In other currencies, the Australian dollar eased to $0.6702, while the New Zealand dollar was 0.26% lower at $0.60295.
The Aussie and the kiwi were set for a more than 1% drop for the week as a high-level meeting in China failed to yield any forceful stimulus steps and the popular carry trades using the yen as funding currency unwound.
($1 = 157.3200 yen)//Reuters-VOI
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