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Japan and the United States could not stand by if China attacked Taiwan, and Beijing needs to understand this, former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said on Wednesday.

Tensions over Chinese-claimed Taiwan have risen as President Xi Jinping seeks to assert his country's sovereignty claims against the democratically ruled island. Taiwan's government says it wants peace but will defend itself if needed.

Speaking virtually to a forum organized by Taiwanese think tank the Institute for National Policy Research, Abe noted the Senkaku islands - which China calls the Diaoyu Islands - Sakishima islands and Yonaguni island are a mere 100 km (62 miles) or so away from Taiwan.

An armed invasion of Taiwan would be a grave danger to Japan, he added.

"A Taiwan emergency is a Japanese emergency, and therefore an emergency for the Japan-U.S. alliance. People in Beijing, President Xi Jinping in particular, should never have a misunderstanding in recognizing this," Abe said.

Japan is host to major U.S. military bases, including on the southern island of Okinawa, a short flight from Taiwan, which would be crucial for any U.S. support during a Chinese attack.

The United States is bound by law to provide Taiwan with the means to defend itself, though there is ambiguity about whether it would send forces to help Taiwan in a war with China.

The United States and its allies would take unspecified "action" if China were to use force to alter the status quo over Taiwan, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said last month.

Abe, who stepped down as prime minister last year, is head of the largest faction of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party and remains influential within the party.

On Sino-Japanese relations going forward, Abe said Japan should advance its ties with China while firmly saying to its giant neighbor what needs to be said, echoing incumbent Prime Minister Fumio Kishida.

"Japan, Taiwan, and all the people who believe in a democracy need to keep urging President Xi Jinping and other Chinese Communist Party leaders repeatedly not to step onto a wrong path," Abe said.

Japan and Taiwan must work together to protect freedom and democracy, added Abe, speaking to an audience that included Cheng Wen-tsan, mayor of the northern Taiwanese city of Taoyuan, tipped as a possible future presidential candidate.

"A stronger Taiwan, a thriving Taiwan, and a Taiwan that guarantees freedom and human rights are also in Japan's interests. Of course, this is also in the interests of the whole world," Abe said. (Reuters)

South Korea will broach North Korea separately with two different audiences on Thursday, holding talks with Beijing's top diplomat in China and with visiting U.S. military leaders in Seoul.

In China, talks are expected to include South Korean President Moon Jae-in's hopes for a declaration to end the 1950-1953 Korean War. The conflict halted with an armistice and not a peace treaty.

In Seoul, U.S. and South Korean top brass are expected to discuss ways to strengthen a military alliance whose main goal is deterring a conflict with Pyongyang, and being prepared to fight one if that fails.

"Unfortunately, our mission to ensure peace on the Korean peninsula remains incomplete. There are piles of tasks ahead of us," South Korean Prime Minister Kim Boo-kyum told the U.S. and South Korean military leaders at a reception on Wednesday.

North Korea has so far rebuffed U.S. entreaties for diplomacy since President Joe Biden took over from Donald Trump, who had three summits with leader Kim Jong Un.

Seoul sees an "end of war declaration" as a way to build trust with Kim, restart stalled denuclearisation talks, and eventually move toward a lasting peace agreement.

But Moon, who has tried to engage with North Korea throughout his presidency, is running out of time to clinch an agreement before his term ends in May.

South Korean national security adviser Suh Hoon will have talks with China’s top diplomat Yang Jiechi in the Chinese city of Tianjin on Thursday on North Korea, the presidential Blue House said.

Critics of Moon's push are also concerned about the risk of giving Pyongyang a symbolic "end of war" declaration without getting anything concrete in return from Kim.

UPDATING WAR PLANNING

U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin met Suh in Seoul on Wednesday and in a brief address later, renewed Washington's commitment to South Korea's defense.

On Thursday, Austin and U.S. Army General Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, will attend annual military talks with South Korea. The discussions are expected to cover an update to operational planning for a potential conflict with North Korea.

"It's needed, given the circumstances and new capabilities that the alliances possess," one U.S. official said, speaking on condition of anonymity. "We do this all the time."

North Korea has tested new weapons systems in recent months, including a submarine-launched ballistic missile. The head of the International Atomic Energy Agency also cautioned in August that North Korea's nuclear program was moving "full steam ahead" with work on plutonium separation, uranium enrichment, and other activities.

In a meeting on Wednesday with General In-Choul Won, South Korea's Chairman of Joint Chiefs of Staff, Milley emphasized the U.S. commitment to providing "extended deterrence" to South Korea - a reference to Washington's pledge to defend its ally with nuclear weapons if necessary.

Another issue expected to top the agenda in Seoul is South Korea's efforts to win wartime operational control of combined military forces.

Currently, a U.S. general would command those forces during a war. Progress toward that transition has been delayed by the COVID-19 pandemic. (Reuters)

Urban poverty is on course to triple in Myanmar, pushing nearly half the population below the poverty line next year, the United Nations said on Wednesday, as the twin impact of the pandemic and a military coup threatens progress made in the past decade.

The army seized power from the elected civilian government of Nobel peace laureate Aung San Suu Kyi on Feb. 1, unleashing political and economic turmoil as it sought to crush opposition and hurting efforts to fight the coronavirus.

Based on a survey of 1,200 households, the U.N. Development Program (UNDP) said Myanmar was set to return to levels of deprivation not seen since 2005 before democratic reforms began.

"A slide into the poverty of this scale could mean the disappearance of the middle class – a bad omen for any rapid recovery from the crisis," Kanni Wignaraja, the director of the UNDP Bureau for Asia and the Pacific, said in a statement.

A spokesman for the military junta did not respond to requests for comment by Reuters.

In the worst-case scenario, the United Nations estimates the numbers of those living below the poverty line could double to 46.3% from 24.8%, while urban poverty is expected to triple by 2022 to stand at 37.2%, versus 11.3% in 2019.

Half of the survey respondents in urban areas said they had no savings left, while about a third reported having sold a motorbike, often a family’s main means of transport.

There was a "clear rising trend of households eating less food" and increasing high school drop-out rates.

Major cities such as Yangon and Mandalay, formerly home to a growing middle class, have seen disruptions to small businesses and sectors, from construction and hospitality to retail and textiles, bringing job losses and reduced wages, the UNDP said.

In October, the junta’s investment minister told Reuters military authorities were trying their best to revive the economy, and blamed foreign-backed "economic sabotage" for the crisis, but gave no details.

If no action was taken, "you're going to see this carried through an entire generation," the U.N. official, Kanni Wignaraja, added.

"You lose a generation not only due to war, but you also lose a generation because of impairments and disabilities that come from a lack of food, poor nutrition, just extreme poverty," she told Reuters.

The World Bank, which before the coup projected economic growth in Myanmar despite COVID-19, now forecasts the economy to contract by more than 18% this year, far outstripping its neighbors.

Myanmar's campaign against the disease foundered along with the rest of the health system after the military overthrew the elected government, which had stepped up testing, quarantine, and treatment.

Services at public hospitals collapsed after many doctors and nurses joined strikes in a civil disobedience movement at the forefront of opposition to military rule and sometimes on the frontline of protests that were quashed.

More than 1,200 people have been killed by junta troops, says a monitoring group, the Assistance Association for Political Prisoners, and the protests have grown into an armed uprising, bringing clashes countrywide. (Reuters)

The United Nations said on Wednesday that a program to pay $300 million a year in cash to Afghan families with children, elderly or people with disabilities is the best way to target increasing poverty.

In what the U.N. Development Programme (UNDP) described as an "alarming" socio-economic outlook for Afghanistan for the next 13 months, it also pushed a $100 million "cash for work" project to boost employment and $90 million in small business payments.

"This will be probably the best shot at halting this massive collapse into near universal poverty," UNDP Regional Director for Asia and the Pacific, Kanni Wignaraja, told Reuters.

As Afghanistan struggles with a sharp drop in international development aid after the Taliban seized power in mid-August, an economy and banking system on the brink of collapse, the COVID-19 pandemic and severe drought, UNDP has projected that poverty may become nearly universal by mid 2022 - affecting more than 90 percent of the country's 39 million people.

The U.N. World Food Programme has said 22.8 million people are facing acute food insecurity.

UNDP set up a special trust fund in October, with a 50 million euros ($58 million) pledge from Germany, to provide urgently needed cash directly to Afghans. So far, the fund has received pledges for $170 million.

The UNDP report makes the case for boosting a cash payment program, known as ABADEI, which was launched in October. Since then UNDP said it has made $100,000 in "cash for work" payments, creating jobs for 2,300 people in Mazar, Kunduz and Herat, and is being expanded to other provinces.

The report also warned that Afghanistan's economic growth will not turn positive in the near term unless restrictions on women working are lifted, $250 million a year in aid to combat COVID-19 continues and sanctions are eased to allow for humanitarian assistance.

It estimates that restricting female employment could cause an immediate economic loss of between $600 million and $1 billion - 3 to 5 percent of gross domestic product.

Wignaraja, who has met Taliban officials in Kabul, said a message needed to be sent that "all capable men and women should be fully back to work and contribute to your full potential to not only mitigate the immediate economic disaster, but think about this as the future of the country."(Reuters)