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11
July

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The role of the monarchy in Thailand is at the core of a looming deadlock that could tip Southeast Asia's second-largest economy into crisis, with reformers once again vying to dislodge the grip on power of the royalist military establishment.

Despite a stunning victory with its allies in a May 14 election over pro-military parties, the progressive Move Forward party led by Pita Limjaroenrat faces an uncertain path to government.

 

The main reason is that part of Move Forward's political platform is the once-unthinkable proposal to amend Thailand's "lese majeste" law, Article 112 of the criminal code that punishes insulting the monarchy with up to 15 years in prison.

In a country where reverence for the monarch has for decades been promoted as central to national identity, the idea is so radical that minority parties and many members of the appointed Senate have vowed to block Pita from becoming prime minister.

 

"The proposed amendment is disrespectful and is offensive to the monarchy," Senator Seri Suwanpanon told Reuters.

The military has for decades invoked its duty to defend the monarchy to justify intervention in politics, and used the lese majeste law to stifle dissent, critics say.

In parliament, a giant portrait of King Maha Vajiralongkorn hangs over the chamber where on Thursday members will vote for a prime minister.

 

But the battle over who gets the job could lead to weeks or even months of deadlock thanks to the votes of a 250-seat Senate, appointed by a junta, that could block the election-winning progressive alliance from securing its choice in a combined vote of both chambers.

The system was set out in a constitution drafted after a 2014 coup led by then-army chief Prayuth Chan-ocha, the prime minister whose party lost badly in the May election.

Much depends on whether Move Forward's main ally, second-place winner Pheu Thai, sticks with it or seeks other coalition partners if Pita's bid looks doomed.

King Vajiralongkorn, 70, who has no role in choosing a government, has remained silent on the lese majeste issue since the election. The Royal Palace did not respond to a request for comment.

SWEEPING CHANGE

Move Forward's proposed amendment reflects cultural changes that have in a few years swept Thailand, where the monarch has for decades been held up as almost semi-divine.

On the surface, much remains the same. The king's portrait hangs on city streets and buildings. The nightly Royal News airs the royal family's good deeds.

But subtle changes are evident. In cinemas, many no longer stand for the royal anthem before every film. Satirical memes spring up on social media before the government orders them removed.

The biggest change, however, is political. In the last election in 2019, no party would have dared suggest amending the lese majeste law.

But Move Forward not only dared, it won the most seats in May though the amendment was only one plank of a progressive platform.

The shift emerged with student-led demonstrations in 2020 that began as protests against military rule but evolved into criticism of what the protesters called a military-palace power nexus, and finally into criticism of the king.

Politicians did not lead the protests but Move Forward called for reform of the lese majeste law when activists began to be charged under it.

About 250 of the 1,900 prosecutions linked to the 2020 protests were under Article 112, according to the group Thai Lawyers for Human Rights.

The prosecution of so many under the law pushed the issue into mainstream discourse, analysts say.

"We can now see the real fault line in politics is the role of the monarchy in Thailand's political order," said Thitinan Pongsudhirak, a political analyst at Bangkok's Chulalongkorn University.

NUMBERS GAME

With many senators expected to vote against Pita for prime minister, Move Forward's 312-seat alliance of eight parties in the 500-seat lower House of Representatives may not be enough to secure him the premiership.

To get to the 376 votes he needs, Move Forward and main partner Pheu Thai need to convince 64 lawmakers from the Senate, or from other parties in the lower house.

If Pita falls short, other scenarios come into play.

Pheu Thai, which has 141 seats to Move Forward's 151, could nominate its prime ministerial candidate with the eight-party alliance intact.

Loyal to self-exiled former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra who was ousted in a 2006 coup, Pheu Thai has been more careful in its messaging on lese majeste, so one of its prime ministerial candidates could win enough votes.

Another possibility is that Pheu Thai seeks other partners in the lower house for a coalition without Move Forward. Pheu Thai, however, is vowing to stick with Move Forward.

Titipol Phakdeewanich, dean of the faculty of political science at Ubon Ratchathani University, said using the law to crush dissent had backfired.

"By over-using Article 112, the conservatives dragged the royal institution deeper into politics," he said.

Move Forward says amending the law will prevent its misuse and benefit the monarchy. It wants the penalty reduced to at most a year in prison, and only the Royal Household Bureau to be able to file a complaint instead of anyone.

"Some senators misunderstood ... accusing Move Forward of wanting to topple the monarchy," party executive committee member Amarat Chokepamitkul told Reuters.

"We want to amend it to maintain good relations between the monarchy and the people." (Reuters)

10
July

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Uzbekistan President Shavkat Mirziyoyev was re-elected with 87.1% of the vote on Sunday, the Central Election Commission said on Monday, citing preliminary results paving his way to another seven years in power.

Mirziyoyev, who has lead Central Asia's most populous nation since 2016, called a snap election after changing the constitution through a referendum which reset his term count and extended the presidential term to seven years from five.

 

The 65-year-old president has opened up the country of 35 million people to foreign trade and investment while also easing restrictions on religious and political freedoms, although there still are no strong opposition groups or politicians in Uzbekistan.

Three other candidates ran in the election, but all represented parties that support the president.

"Uzbekistan’s early presidential election was technically well prepared but lacked genuine competition," observers from the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe said in a statement.

 

Mirziyoyev's key task will now be navigating through the regional crisis caused by Russia's invasion of Ukraine which has disrupted supply chains across the former Soviet Union and put a stress on diplomatic relations.

Since the start of the war, Tashkent has sought to maintain ties with both Russia, a former Soviet overlord and traditional partner, and the West; Uzbekistan has called for peace and refused to recognise the independence of pro-Russian statelets in eastern Ukraine. (Reuters)

10
July

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The Human Rights Council is set to debate a contentious draft proposal on religious hatred in the wake of a Koran burning in Sweden, an initiative that has highlighted rifts in the U.N. body and challenged practices in human rights protection.

In a draft resolution presented by Pakistan on behalf of the 57-nation Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC), the group described the burning of the Koran in Stockholm last month as "offensive, disrespectful and a clear act of provocation" that incites hatred and constitutes a human rights violation.

 

The draft - which condemned "recurring acts of public burning of the Holy Koran in some European and other countries" - has stoked opposition from Western diplomats who argue it aims to safeguard religious symbols rather than human rights.

"We don't like the text," one Western diplomat said of the draft, which will be presented to the Human Rights Council in Geneva on Tuesday. "Human rights are supposed to be attached to individuals, not to religions."

 

The OIC initiative also stokes tensions between Western states and the Islamic organisation at a time when the group has unprecedented clout in the council, the only body made up of governments to protect human rights worldwide.

Nineteen OIC countries are voting members of the 47-member council, and other states such as China have aligned with their draft resolution.

It remains to be seen whether Pakistan will succeed in rallying all OIC countries behind it. A Saudi-led effort to end a Yemen war crimes probe prevailed in 2021.

 

"If the resolution passes, as seems likely, it will strengthen the impression the council is flipping and the West is losing ground on key debates such as the boundary between free speech and hate speech, and whether religions have rights," said Marc Limon, director of the Geneva-based Universal Rights Group.

"This could make the council explode in acrimony."

The European Union has urged parties to reach a consensus on the issue.

"Defamation of religions has been a difficult topic for decades within the U.N.," an EU diplomat said in negotiations last week.

"The question where to draw the line between freedom of expression and incitement to hatred is indeed a very complicated one." (Reuters)

10
July

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China and the Solomon Islands on Monday signed a deal on police cooperation as part of upgrading their relations to a "comprehensive strategic partnership", four years after the Pacific nation switched ties from Taiwan to China.

The police cooperation pact was among nine deals signed after Solomon Islands Prime Minister Manasseh Sogavare met with Chinese Premier Li Qiang in Beijing, underlining his nation's foreign policy shift to seek opportunities beyond the region.

 

Sogavare arrived in China on Sunday for his first visit since the two countries struck a security pact last year, to the alarm of the United States and neighbours including Australia.

"In just four years, the relationship between China and the Solomon Islands has developed rapidly, and we can now say that it is very fruitful," Li told Sogavare.

Sogavare, in turn, thanked China for its role in addressing global challenges including peace and sustainable development. He added that his country had "a lot to learn" from China's experience.

 

When Sogavare came to power in 2019, he switched the nation's diplomatic ties from Taiwan to Beijing, which claims the democratically governed island as part of its territory.

Last month, Sogavare called for a review of a 2017 security treaty with Australia in a meeting with the Australian defence minister.

Australia has historically provided policing support to the Solomon Islands, including the rapid deployment of police in 2021 to quell riots, although China has increased its police training there.

 

Sogavare also met Chinese President Xi Jinping and the two agreed to establish a comprehensive strategic partnership, according to Chinese state television.

"China and Pacific island countries are both developing countries and should strengthen mutual assistance within the framework of South-South cooperation," Xi said in his meeting with Sogavare.

China has long supported so-called South-South cooperation, which refers to cooperation between developing nations as equals for mutual benefit.

Describing the two countries as "trustworthy friends and reliable brothers", Xi said China-Solomon Islands ties have set a "good example of solidarity and cooperation" between countries of different sizes and between developing nations.

China supports more of its firms investing in Solomon Islands and will continue to provide economic and technical assistance "without political strings attached", Xi told Sogavare.

He also pledged support for a 2050 Strategy for the Blue Pacific Continent, referring to a grand blueprint agreed among Pacific nations on advancing the region's strategic goals over the next three decades.

In a statement, Sogavare's office highlighted "quality infrastructure" as an area that the country needs for economic empowerment to eradicate poverty.

Chinese telecoms giant Huawei is already building a cellular network in the island nation, financed by a $66 million Chinese EXIM bank loan that has prompted concern by a parliamentary committee about the debt burden. A Chinese state company will also redevelop the port in the capital Honiara.

The two countries also reached agreements in areas including civil aviation, trade, economy, technology and sports.

Sogavare will be in China until Saturday and officially open his country's embassy in Beijing. (Reuters)

10
July

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Solomon Islands Prime Minister Manasseh Sogavare arrives in China on Sunday for his first visit since striking a security deal, pledging to "remain neutral" amid rising China-U.S. competition and prioritise his nation's development needs.

Western analysts said Sogavare would be feted after signing the security pact that alarmed Washington and some Pacific Islands neighbours including Australia last year. Concern over China's naval ambitions in the strategically-located region prompted Washington to strike a defence agreement with Papua New Guinea last month. read more

 

Sogavare highlighted his focus on infrastructure in a speech to mark the 45th anniversary of independence from Britain on Friday, where he said bigger countries were jostling for influence.

"We want to remain neutral because it is not in the interest of our people and country to take sides and align ourselves with interests that are not our interests. Our national interest is development," he said.

 

The need for infrastructure on islands outside the capital Honiara was urgent, he added.

Already, Chinese telecoms giant Huawei is building a cellular network financed by a $66 million Chinese EXIM bank loan, prompting concern by a parliamentary committee about the debt burden, and a Chinese state company will redevelop Honiara's port.

On a week-long trip funded by Beijing, Sogavare will open the nation's embassy, meet Chinese companies, and visit Jiangsu and Guangdong, his office said.

 

"The relationship continues to thrive and expand, a testament of a serious connection," his office said.

China's foreign ministry said China and the Solomon Islands had "contributed to peace, stability and development in the region", and the two countries leaders would discuss international and regional issues.

In a local television interview, Sogavare said the Solomon Islands was dependent on aid from Australia, but was shifting its foreign policy to look for opportunities with China, as well as India and Gulf states.

Sogavare came to power in 2019, switching the nation's diplomatic ties from Taiwan to Beijing.

Honiara will host the Pacific Games in November. China has constructed the stadium, is advising on security, and will train 80 Solomon Islands athletes arriving in China this week.

"The timing is about the Pacific Games, the athletes are being sent over, and showing gratitude... this is the domestic theatre of Chinese foreign policy," said Graeme Smith, a Pacific affairs experts at the Australian National University.

Sogavare will be feted as "this small nation that dares to stand up to the U.S. and to stand up to Australia," he added.

Solomon Islands has one of the closest relationships with China in the region, said Meg Keen, director of the Lowy Institute's Pacific Islands program.

"With the Pacific Games and elections coming up, Sogavare will be seeking resources for national and political advantage," she said.

"It is not a zero-sum game," she added. Sogavare will leverage geopolitical rivalries to also accept aid from the U.S. and Japan. (Reuters)

10
July

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South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol was set to depart on Monday for a summit with NATO leaders, seeking deeper international security cooperation amid rising North Korean threats and tension over China.

Yoon's attendance at the annual NATO gathering that begins in Lithuania on Tuesday, alongside the leaders of Japan, Australia and New Zealand, will be followed by a three-day visit to Poland starting on Wednesday, his office said.

 

Yoon has been pushing for greater security ties with Europe and other U.S. allies to deter North Korea's nuclear and missile threats, while raising its contributions to global challenges, including Russia's invasion in Ukraine and Sino-U.S. rivalry.

Last year, he attended the NATO summit for the first time as a South Korean leader, saying new conflicts and competition posed threats to universal values. 

Yoon this year is looking to voice stronger messages against North Korea and step up cooperation on security, supply chains and the Ukraine war, a presidential official said.

He will hold bilateral talks with several European and Asia Pacific leaders on the sidelines of the summit, and separately adopt a new document with NATO to bolster bilateral cooperation in 11 areas, including non-proliferation and cybersecurity.

 

"He would strengthen cooperation with NATO on North Korea's escalating nuclear and missile threats, and send a united warning that the international community will not tolerate North Korea's illegal activities," the official told reporters.

A U.S. ally and rising arms exporter, South Korea may face renewed pressure to provide weapons to Ukraine, which Yoon's administration has resisted, wary of Russian influence over North Korea. There had also been speculation in media that Yoon might visit Ukraine as part of the trip.

The official said Yoon has no plans to travel to Ukraine, but would highlight Seoul's commitment to restoring peace in Ukraine and explore aid packages with other countries.

In a written interview with The Associated Press published on Monday, Yoon said supplies to Ukraine, including de-mining equipment and ambulances, "are in the works" and vowed support for post-war reconstruction.

In Poland, which Yoon will visit for the first time as president, both sides are expected to discuss ways to boost economic and strategic ties, including in arms trade and nuclear energy.

Poland has emerged a key destination of South Korean defence exports as it seeks to beef up its military in the face of Russia's aggression against Ukraine. Last year, two South Korean companies signed a $5.76 billion contract with Poland to export tanks and howitzers, as part of South Korea's biggest ever arms deal.

Choi Sang-mok, senior presidential secretary for economic policy, said the Poland trip would also help reinforce supply chains, secure new export markets and expand cooperation in rebuilding Ukraine.

Park Won-gon, a professor at Ewha Womans University in Seoul, said Yoon's visit in Poland could send a message of support for neighbouring Ukraine.

"The NATO summit would be a chance to reinforce cooperation with the countries that share values and norms," Park said. "While whether President Yoon will go to Ukraine remains to be seen, it is important to voice support and solidarity as a country that can directly help them." (Reuters)

10
July

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New Zealand Foreign Minister Nanaia Mahuta told the head of the U.N.'s nuclear watchdog on Monday that her government has full confidence in the IAEA's advice on the proposed Fukushima treated water release.

"I also felt it was important to draw attention to the Pacific's traumatic experience with nuclear testing and asked directly that meaningful engagement continue with the Pacific region on the proposed release," she said in a statement following the meeting with Rafael Grossi, the Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)

 

After a two-year review, the IAEA said Japan's plans to release some 500 Olympic size swimming pools worth of water from the Fukushimi plant wrecked by a tsunami more than a decade ago were consistent with global safety standards and that they would have a "negligible radiological impact to people and the environment".

Following the release of the report, Grossi visited South Korea. He is currently in New Zealand before travelling to the Cook Islands where he will meet with Pacific Islands Forum chair and Cook Islands Prime Minister Mark Brown.

 

The Pacific Islands Forum, a regional bloc of 17 island nations, has raised significant concerns about the release of the water fearing among other things the impact on fisheries.

Mahuta said New Zealand acutely understands the effects nuclear testing has had on its Pacific neighbours in the past, and the government would continue to call for the release of the water to be dealt with through transparency and meaningful dialogue. (Reuters)

07
July

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The Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) in the Hague rejected on Thursday India's objections to a Pakistan-initiated procedure over water use in the Indus River basin, reopening a procedure that had been blocked for many years.

India called the arbitration proceeding illegal as a neutral expert was also looking at the issue and the World Bank-brokered treaty prohibits parallel proceedings.

The South Asian neighbours have been arguing over hydroelectric projects on the shared Indus River and its tributaries for decades, with Pakistan complaining that India's planned hydropower dams in upstream areas will cut flows on the river which feeds 80% of its irrigated agriculture.

 

To resolve the dispute, Pakistan sought resolution through PCA arbitration proceedings in 2016, prompting India to request that the World Bank appoint a neutral expert under the terms of the treaty. India has boycotted The Hague court proceedings and questioned the competence of the court.

"In a unanimous decision, which is binding on the Parties and without appeal, the Court rejected each of the objections raised by India and determined that the Court is competent to consider and determine the disputes set forth in Pakistan's Request for Arbitration," the court said in a statement.

 

It gave no details on when and how the case will continue, but added that it will address the interpretation and application of the bilateral Indus Water Treaty, notably the provisions on hydro-electric projects, as well as the legal effect of past decisions of dispute resolution bodies under the Treaty.

A spokesperson for India's foreign ministry, Arindam Bagchi, said India's "consistent and principled position has been that the constitution of this so-called court of arbitration is in contravention of the clear letter and spirit of the Indus Water Treaty".

 

He said India was participating in the proceedings of the neutral expert, which he called "the only treaty-consistent proceedings at this juncture".

"Legal sophistry" will not compel India to participate in the proceedings of the PCA, Bagchi said.

India says the construction of its Kishanganga and Ratle Hydro Electric projects is allowed by the treaty.

Pakistan's Foreign Office said that it remained fully committed to the implementation of the Indus Water Treaty and its settlement mechanism, which it termed a "foundational agreement" between the two countries.

"We hope that India would also implement the Treaty in good faith," Foreign Office spokeswoman Mumtaz Zahra Baloch said in a statement on Thursday night. (Reuters)

07
July

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Japan lodged a protest with South Korea over military drills it conducted on disputed islands, saying it was "extremely regrettable", the foreign ministry said in a statement issued on Friday.

The foreign ministry said it summoned a senior diplomat at the South Korean embassy in Tokyo, and the Japanese embassy in Seoul also summoned a senior South Korea official to make the protest.

"Takeshima is indisputably an inherent territory of Japan, in light of historical facts and based on international law," the ministry said in the statement.

 

"The drills by the South Korean military are unacceptable and extremely regrettable."

The two nations have long been at loggerheads over the sovereignty of the group of islets called Takeshima in Japan and Dokdo in Korea, which lie about halfway between the East Asian neighbours in the Sea of Japan, also known as the East Sea.

"The East Sea territory defence exercise was carried out to conduct our mission to protect our territory, people and property," a South Korean military official said.

 

The South Korean military has conducted the military drill routinely every year, the official added. (Reuters)

07
July

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Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida will join NATO leaders in Lithuania on Tuesday to remind an alliance focused on Ukraine to pay heed to Chinese and Russian activity in Asia, which Japan sees as a threat to global security.

Kishida’s second visit to a North Atlantic Treaty Organization gathering, along with the leaders of South Korea, Australia and New Zealand, comes as Japan doubles defence spending to deter Chinese and Russian forces in the waters and skies around Japan.

 

With Japan feeling it can no longer solely rely on its old ally the U.S. to back it up, Kishida is also courting new security partners.

"Japan talks about principles such as territorial integrity, but the message to Europe is 'don’t forget about the Indo-Pacific, no matter how difficult the situation with Russia is'," said Michito Tsuruoka, a NATO expert at Keio University.

In its most recent annual national security assessment, Japan said it was surrounded by nuclear-armed actors, including China, North Korea and Russia, which is also a neighbour to six NATO members. Tokyo worries about getting sucked into a conflict over Taiwan, which is only 100 km (62 miles) away.

 

Kishida, who has embraced the U.S. rhetoric of "like-minded nations" sticking together, has for the past year warned that a Ukraine-like conflict, which Russia describes as a special operation, could erupt in East Asia if China tries to take control of self-ruled Taiwan. China has criticised Japan for a "Cold War mentality".

By working with NATO, Japan could also help the U.S. knit its global alliances together, "breaking down the traditional silos between America's Atlantic allies and America's Pacific allies", the U.S. ambassador to NATO, Julianne Smith, told a media briefing. 

"We find ourselves coming together to address a whole range of options," she said.

'BIG MISTAKE'

At the meeting in Lithuania's capital, Vilnius, Japan is expected to be included in NATO's Individually Tailored Partnership Program, opening the way for cooperation on cyber security, space and information sharing on China and Russia.

That initiative follows a visit to Japan by NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg in January when he said the lessons China was learning from Ukraine could influence its decisions.

NATO documents have begun to reflect concern about China, East Asia and the Indo-Pacific, but Japan needs to deepen its awareness of those issues, a Japanese official involved in discussions about NATO ties said.

However, the military alliance is unlikely to agree to open an office in Tokyo in the face of French President Emmanuel Macron's opposition to a move that could irritate China and open NATO up to accusations of geographical overreach.

"If we push NATO's presence in the Indo-Pacific area and expand its reach, we will be making a big mistake," a French foreign ministry spokesperson said.

Diplomats from two European NATO countries who spoke to Reuters said European unease about a Tokyo office went beyond France. They declined to be identified.

Another Japanese official involved in preparations for Kishida's NATO visit said the idea of a NATO office in Japan had nothing to do with China, but that is how it became framed, and each NATO country has its own relations with China.

Japan, he added, would continue communicating with NATO through its embassy in Brussels or via the Danish embassy in Tokyo, the contact point in Japan for dealings with the military alliance.

SEOUL AND SYDNEY

South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol, who will also attend the NATO summit, is also looking to deepen relations in Europe including new defence deals with countries like Poland.

Under Yoon, South Korea has set up a liaison office with NATO in Brussels and has embraced a call for unity among like-minded countries. He may, however, face renewed pressure to provide weapons to Ukraine, which his administration has declined to do, wary of Russian influence over North Korea.

Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, another member of Asia Pacific Four invited to the NATO gathering, said Australia would maintain support for Ukraine, when asked about new financial aid for it.

"We’ll continue to stand with the people of Ukraine," Albanese told Sky News. (Reuters)