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03
July

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Taiwan's military carried out live fire drills on its strategically-located southern coast on Monday, firing missiles from highly mobile armoured cars to destroy targets close to shore in a simulation of repelling invading forces.

China, which views democratically governed Taiwan as its own territory, has ramped up military pressure over the past three years to try to assert its sovereignty claim, and the island's armed forces routinely practice seeing off a Chinese attack.

 

Camouflaged Taiwan army Humvees roared around the coastal drill area in Pingtung county's Fangshan near the far southern tip of the island, before firing off U.S.-made TOW anti-tank missiles to destroy static targets near the shoreline.

"Most of the drills we carried out today involved live artillery because the defence exercise needs to be similar to actual combat, allowing our army to be confident and have the capability to protect our homeland," Defence Ministry spokesperson Sun Li-fang told reporters.

Pingtung, which looks out on the Taiwan Strait, South China Sea, Pacific Ocean and Bashi Channel that separates Taiwan from the Philippines, is a highly strategic spot to watch Chinese military activity, and a potential landing site in an invasion.

Taiwan holds its most important drills, the annual Han Kuang exercises, at the end of this month, with a focus on combating a blockade and preserving the fighting ability of its forces.

 

Those drills are expected to see air force jets operating at civilian airports, including the island's main international airport at Taoyuan, to practice using their facilities in case air bases are rendered unusable in a war.

China practised precision strikes and blockading the island in drills around it in April after Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen met U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Kevin McCarthy in Los Angeles.

Beijing has never renounced using force to bring the island under its control. Taiwan rejects Beijing's sovereignty claims and has vowed to defend its freedom and democracy. (Reuters)

03
July

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New Zealand Prime Minister Chris Hipkins trod a careful line on his first trip to China last week as leader, focusing on trade and economic opportunities but avoiding contentious issues such as human rights abuses in Xinjiang or security concerns.

Barely three months out from what looks likely to be a tight election and with the economy already technically in recession, analysts say Hipkins is seeking to step out of the shadow of high-profile former leader Jacinda Ardern and show he is the person to run the country for a further three years.

 

One angle Hipkins is focusing on is assuring voters that Labour is the party to bring back prosperity – and that means avoiding disputes with the country’s largest trading partner, which could damage New Zealand exports.

“This was a big visit for Hipkins who is cementing his profile as a new prime minister in an election year,” said Robert Ayson, professor of strategic studies at Victoria University.

“Hipkins pulled his punches on anything controversial. We were back, for a moment at least, where New Zealand admits it does not see eye to eye with China on some big matters without actually naming them."

New Zealand has long been seen as the most conciliatory towards China among the Five Eyes security grouping, which includes Australia, the U.S., Britain and Canada.

But the country’s Foreign Minister Nanaia Mahuta and Ardern in recent meetings with counterparts noted the situation in Xinjiang and the erosion of democracy in Hong Kong, while raising concerns about potential militarisation in the Pacific and tensions in the Taiwan Strait.

 

The statement after Hipkins's meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping mentioned none of these issues.

“(Hipkins's) visit certainly gave China a tick in the international legitimacy box and Beijing has gained at least as much from Hipkins' visit as New Zealand exporters,” Victoria University's Ayson said.

New Zealand exporters were prominent in the visit with a delegation of 29 businesses travelling with the prime minister to China.

Business is not a traditional supporter base of the Labour Party, but Hipkins has been focused on winning this sector over since he took office – his first full day in the job in January he spent talking to business leaders in Auckland.

“My sense is that there's a significant aspect of domestic politics here in an election year, and that Hipkins wants to be seen as a sort of good steward of the China relationship,” said David Capie, Director of the Centre for Strategic Studies at Victoria University.

 

The most recent polls from late May put a coalition of opposition parties National and Act ahead of a Labour-Green party coalition. Neither coalition, however, may have a clear majority.

Derek J. Grossman, a senior defence analyst at RAND Corp in the United States said the trade-focused visit is unlikely to have any negative blow back on New Zealand’s relationship with other partners as many countries are aware of the delicate balancing act Wellington is playing.

“In addition, and as the Biden administration has shown with India on its Russia ties, so long as partners agree to cooperate on the Indo-Pacific strategy to counter China, then Washington is willing to tolerate quite a bit of behaviour that does not align with its interests or even values." (Reuters)

03
July

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China, Japan and South Korea need to send a clear signal of regrouping towards co-operation, and resist "the coercion of bullying and domination", China's top diplomat, Wang Yi, said on Monday, in an apparent swipe at the United States.

The remarks come at a time of heightened tension as the United States moves to forge closer ties with allies Japan and South Korea to push back against China's growing regional influence.

 

Wang was speaking on efforts to revitalise co-operation among the three neighbours at a forum organised by the Trilateral Cooperation Secretariat, a body set up by agreement among Beijing, Seoul and Tokyo.

He called for them to "foster a sense of strategic autonomy, maintain regional unity and stability, resist the return of the Cold War mentality, and be free from the coercion of bullying and domination," the Chinese foreign ministry said.

Although Wang stopped short of mentioning the United States, he said "certain major countries outside the region" had attempted to replace unity with division while seeking geographical gains, the ministry said in a statement.

"If this trend is allowed to develop, it will not only seriously interfere with the smooth progress of trilateral co-operation, but also increase tension and confrontation in the region," Wang added.

 

Wang emphasised the need to solve disputes through dialogue and consultation, and oppose words or deeds that could plunge the region into war.

At the event in the eastern coastal city of Qingdao, Wang also called for accelerating talks on free trade zones and efforts to free up and smoothe trade among the neighbours.

However, Wang reiterated Beijing's opposition to Japan's plan to release into the sea treated water from Tokyo Electric Power Co's (9501.T) Fukushima nuclear plant, saying it would affect the marine ecosystem and people's safety.

South Korean Foreign Minister Park Jin and Japanese Foreign Minister Hayashi Yoshimasa addressed the event via video link. (Reuters)

 
03
July

Update info on El Nino by World Meteorological Organisation - 

 

El Niño conditions have developed in the tropical Pacific for the first time in seven years, setting the stage for a likely surge in global temperatures and disruptive weather and climate patterns.


A new Update from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) forecasts that there is a 90% probability of the El Niño event continuing during the second half of 2023. It is expected to be at least of moderate strength. The WMO Update combines forecasts and expert guidance from around the world.

“The onset of El Niño will greatly increase the likelihood of breaking temperature records and triggering more extreme heat in many parts of the world and in the ocean,” said WMO Secretary-General Prof. Petteri Taalas.

“The declaration of an El Niño by WMO is the signal to governments around the world to mobilize preparations to limit the impacts on our health, our ecosystems and our economies,” he said. “Early warnings and anticipatory action of extreme weather events associated with this major climate phenomenon are vital to save lives and livelihoods.”

El Niño occurs on average every two to seven years, and episodes typically last nine to 12 months. It is a naturally occurring climate pattern associated with warming of the ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. But it takes place in the context of a climate changed by human activities.

In anticipation of the El Niño event, a WMO report released in May predicted that there is a 98% likelihood that at least one of next five years, and the five-year period as a whole, will be warmest on record, beating the record set in 2016 when there was an exceptionally strong El Niño.

The WMO report in May, led by the UK’s Met Office with partners around the world, also said there is a 66% likelihood that the annual average near-surface global temperature between 2023 and 2027 will temporarily be more than 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels for at least one year. 

According to WMO’s State of the Global Climate reports, 2016 is the warmest year on record because of the “double whammy” of a very powerful El Niño event and human-induced warming from greenhouse gases. The effect on global temperatures usually plays out in the year after its development and so will likely be most apparent in 2024.

The average global temperature in 2022 was about a.15 °C above the 1850-1900 average because of the cooling triple-dip La Niña//VOI

30
June

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The U.S. State Department has approved the potential sale of ammunition and logistics support to Taiwan in two separate deals valued at up to $440 million, the Pentagon said on Thursday.

Taiwan has asked to purchase 30mm ammunition, including high-explosive incendiary-tracer rounds, multi-purpose rounds and training rounds, for an estimated cost of $332.2 million, the Pentagon said.

The principal contractors will be Alliant Techsystems Operations and General Dynamics (GD.N), it said.

 

Taiwan has also asked to buy a Blanket Order Cooperative Logistics Supply Support Arrangement for an estimated cost of $108 million, the Pentagon said.

The logistics arrangement will support the purchase of spare and repair parts for wheeled vehicles, weapons and other related elements, it said.

The Pentagon's Defense Security Cooperation Agency notified Congress of both of the possible sales on Thursday.

In a statement on Friday, Taiwan's defence ministry said the sales would boost the island's resilience against China's "expanding threats of military and grey zone tactics", which it said has posed "severe threats" to Taiwan.

Taiwan's defence ministry has said China continued to use "grey zone" tactics to test its responses, including sending drones, balloons and fishing boats to areas near Taiwan. (Reuters)

30
June

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The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has reached a staff-level pact with Pakistan on a $3 billion stand-by arrangement, the lender said, a decision long awaited by the South Asian nation which is teetering on the brink of default.

The deal, subject to approval by the IMF board in July, comes after an eight-month delay and offers some respite to Pakistan, which is battling an acute balance of payments crisis and falling foreign exchange reserves.

 

Following are some reactions to the deal:

MURTAZA SYED, FORMER DEPUTY GOVERNOR OF THE STATE BANK OF PAKISTAN

"The SBA (stand-by arrangement) provides Pakistan with much needed short-term cover, in the lead up to and immediate aftermath of the upcoming elections. As long as Pakistan remains on track under the SBA’s reviews, it should catalyze additional financing from bilateral and other multilateral sources.

"In this way, we should be able to meet the external debt repayments coming due in the next few months. It is not the end of our relationship with the IMF though, as the SBA is a short-term bridging operation. The new government will almost definitely need to negotiate another long-term EFF programme with the IMF after the elections, as our balance of payments and external debt repayment problems are of a more protracted nature.

 

GARETH LEATHER, SENIOR ASIA ECONOMIST AT CAPITAL ECONOMICS, LONDON

"The agreement of a loan deal between Pakistan and the IMF should put the economy back on a more secure footing and limit the biggest downside risks.

"However, past experience suggests that the government will struggle to stick to the tough spending promises it has agreed to. There is a strong risk that Pakistan reneges on the deal once the immediate crisis has passed.

"One obvious trigger is the upcoming general election, due to be held no later than November. Even if Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif is committed to a deal, he could be out of office before the end of the year and replaced by someone less committed to the agreement."

ABDUL ALEEM, CHIEF EXECUTIVE AND GENERAL SECRETARY AT OVERSEAS INVESTORS CHAMBER OF COMMERCE AND INDUSTRIES, KARACHI

"We see it as a significant supportive move which was long awaited to remove the perpetual uncertainty in the economic landscape of the country.

"While the State Bank had managed the delicate situation remarkably well but certainly the hard measures dented the confidence of investors and reputation of the country as a destination for new foreign direct investment."

 

SAKIB SHERANI, FOUNDER AND CHIEF EXECUTIVE AT MACRO ECONOMIC INSIGHTS, ISLAMABAD

"Its clear the EFF has ended unsuccessfully. The SBA gives a temporary lifeline to this government and the new one post-elections. The successor government will have to negotiate a fresh, longer term arrangement with the Fund"

SHAHBAZ ASHRAF, CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER AT INVESTMENT COMPANY FRIM VENTURES, KARACHI

"Capital market investors will celebrate this development, currency market should stabilise. However, interest rates are expected to remain higher for longer. Eurobonds may rally.

"Few more measures like lifting import restrictions and higher electricity tariff may be seen in the near term. Circular debt in the power sector might remain flat, if not lower led by this development"

MAHA RAHMAN, ECONOMIST AND FORMER DIRECTOR POLICY AT MAHBUB UL HAQ RESEARCH CENTER, LAHORE

"Much needed relief that we have been hoping for for a year. I hope we can utilise this space to make prudent decisions so that we are not at the edge of our seats, like the previous year, ever again.

"IMF's agreement in particular refers to energy sector reforms. The team will now steer the government to make decisions that will usher in more fiscal prudence."

ZAFAR MASUD, CEO AT BANK OF PUNJAB, LAHORE

"It's important to see how much of the 3 billion is being disbursed upfront and what conditionalities are attached to the remaining tranches. Our target shall be that the next IMF programme should be the last one and it would be a great opportunity to correct our fiscal account once and for all."

MUSTAFA PASHA, CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER AT LAKSON INVESTMENTS, LONDON

"The 3 billion SBA is a much better outcome for Pakistan (as opposed to the 9th review) as it means the country actively stays in an IMF programme till March 2024 during which a transition to a new government is expected and which would have been a period of uncertainty.

"This increases the probability of funding from bilateral/multilateral partners materialising in the quantum and timeline the country needs in order to meet its dollar obligations.

SHAHID HABIB, CEO AT INVESTMENT COMPANY ARIF HABIB LTD, KARACHI

"The new 9-month SBA is a major positive and will significantly reduce risks and uncertainties and serve as a source of comfort to investors and lenders. It will also allow access to funding from other multilateral and bilateral partners which is essential given Pakistan has about USD 9.0 billion of debt repayments including USD 4 billion of sovereign rollovers until December."

MUSADAQ ZULQARNAIN, CHAIRMAN AT INTERLOOP HOLDINGS, ONE OF THE LARGEST TEXTILE MANUFACTURERS IN PAKISTAN

"The 9 month SBA for $3 billion will bring some badly needed relief in the short term. Although the budget has created further difficulties for the corporate sector and the cost of doing business has gone out of the roof, the biggest problem has been the uncertainty and volatility in the market.

"This agreement will at least provide some stability for next few months."

MOHAMMED SOHAIL, CEO OF BROKERAGE FIRM TOPLINE SECURITIES, KARACHI

"This new programme is far better than our expectations. There were a lot of uncertainties on what will happen after June 2023 as there will be a new government coming to power. Now, this funding of 3 billion dollars and for 9 months will definitely help restore some investor confidence.

"The newly elected government, likely by Nov/Dec, will have some time to evaluate the economic situation and decide on the way forward (bigger IMF loan with or without debt restructuring/reprofiling)."

AHFAZ MUSTAFA, CEO OF BROKERAGE FIRM ISMAIL IQBAL SECURITIES, KARACHI

"It also means that at this point no local/foreign restructuring of debt is on the cards. We have to wait for more details to come and see if any prior actions have to be fulfilled before the board meeting, but these are absolutely steps in the right direction for the economy."

SAJID AMIN JAVED, DEPUTY EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR, SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT POLICY INSTITUTE, ISLAMABAD

"The SBA will come with even more tough conditions of sharp energy price hikes, completely market driven exchange rate, and others. But, Pakistan has no other way to come out of this crisis. We need IMF backing up.

"Things would have been much better if successive governments would have invested in completing the IMF programme. It will have avoided all the uncertainty, panic in market and pressure on currency." (Reuters)

30
June

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Australian and European Union trade ministers spoke on Thursday evening, a source familiar with the matter told Reuters, as optimism builds that sticking points over a free trade agreement (FTA) can be overcome with more negotiation.

A trade deal with the EU, a market of around 450 million consumers, would be a significant boost for Australia's push to diversify its export markets, after major trading partner China imposed blocks on a raft of Australian agricultural products in a 2020 political dispute.

 

Negotiations between Trade Minister Don Farrell and EU Trade Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis stalled in Brussels in June.

However, Australian assistant trade minister Tim Ayres said on radio on Friday another meeting could be held in the next fortnight.

"I think it's likely that there will be a return to ministerial-level negotiations," Ayres told ABC Radio.

"There has to be a very clear indication on the European side that we're going to make commercially meaningful access in terms of agriculture," he added.

The source told Reuters that Farrell and Dombrovskis spoke on Thursday evening.

Farrell has previously said Australia wants better access for Australian beef, sugar and sheep meat before it signs a deal.

Agriculture Minister Murray Watt will meet with the EU agriculture commissioner, and ministers from several European nations, to push for better market access for Australian producers when he attends the United Nation's Food and Agricultural Organisation conference in Rome this week, he said.

"We believe it is possible to reach an agreement which benefits both Australia and the EU and we will continue striving to achieve that," Watt said in a statement on Friday.

There is optimism that an agreement could be struck by mid-year.

Dombrovskis wrote in a Tweet he had discussed the FTA in a meeting with the European Australia Business Council, a business organisation, in Brussels on Wednesday, and sent his condolences on the sudden death in Germany on Sunday of the council's chairman Simon Crean, a former Labor party leader. (Reuters)

30
June

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A senior U.S. official charged with handling ties with the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) bloc visited Taiwan this week for talks on his country's plans to host the grouping this year, the de facto U.S. embassy in Taipei said on Friday.

APEC is one of the few international organisations to which Chinese-claimed Taiwan belongs, since Beijing, which views the island as a Chinese province, and not a country, blocks its participation in most others.

 

Against the backdrop of military tension between Beijing and Taipei, past APEC summits have served as a rare conduit for direct engagement between Taiwan and China, which is also a member.

The U.S. official, Matt Murray, visited Taiwan on Tuesday and Wednesday to discuss with senior officials issues related to APEC and the robust U.S.-Taiwan economic relationship, the American Institute in Taiwan said in a brief statement.

Murray discussed topics such as high-level meetings set for August in Seattle on aspects of disaster preparedness, food security, health and the economy, energy, women and the economy, and small and medium enterprises, the statement added.

It did not say whom he had met while in Taiwan.

The main leaders' summit will take place in San Francisco in November.

Taiwan presidents do not attend APEC summits, but the island is represented either by senior former officials or business leaders, such as Morris Chang, founder of semiconductor maker TSMC (2330.TW), who went to the Bangkok summit last year.

 

Chang had a brief conversation with Chinese President Xi Jinping at the time, and also discussed semiconductors with U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris. (Reuters)

30
June

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Eleven Chinese aircraft crossed the median line of the Taiwan Strait on Friday morning, an unofficial barrier between the two sides, Taiwan's defence ministry said, as China ramps up military pressure on the democratic island.

Taiwan, which China claims as its own territory despite the island's objections, has complained in recent years of almost daily missions by the Chinese air force, often in the southwestern part of its air defence identification zone.

 

A total of 24 Chinese war planes including fighter jets and bombers were spotted near Taiwan on Friday morning from around 8 a.m. (00:00 GMT), the defence ministry said, adding five Chinese battleships also joined a "joint war readiness patrol."

Taiwan sent aircraft and ships to warn away the Chinese activities, while missile systems monitored them, the ministry said, using standard wording for its response.

A senior Taiwan security official told Reuters the Chinese activities on Friday were likely a reaction to the visit to Taipei made by a U.S. congressional delegation led by the chair of House Armed Services Committee Mike Rogers.

China, which has never renounced the use of force to bring Taiwan under its control, in April staged drills around the island in anger at President Tsai Ing-wen's meeting with the speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives.

 

Taiwan's government strongly objects to China's sovereignty claims and vows to defend itself if China attacks the island.

The U.S. State Department on Thursday approved the potential sale of ammunition and logistics supply support to Taiwan in two separate deals valued at up to $440 million. (Reuters)

30
June

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The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has reached a staff-level pact with Pakistan on $3 billion in short-term financial help, the lender said, a decision long awaited by the South Asian nation which is teetering on the brink of default.

The deal, subject to approval by the IMF board in July, came hours before the current agreement with the IMF expires later on Friday. Although essentially a bridge loan, it offers much respite to Pakistan, which is battling an acute balance of payments crisis and falling foreign exchange reserves.

 

The so-called Stand-by Arrangement (SBA) will enable Pakistan to achieve economic stability, and put the country "on the path of sustainable economic growth, God willing," Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said.

Pakistan will receive formal documents on the deal later on Friday from the IMF, Finance Minister Ishaq Dar told Reuters, which he said he would "sign, seal and return by tonight."

He had said on Thursday the deal was expected any time soon.

Pakistan's sovereign dollar bonds were trading higher after the announcement, with the 2024 issue enjoying the biggest gains, up more than 8 cents at just above 70 cents in the dollar, according to Tradeweb data.

The gains were most pronounced in shorter-dated bonds, reflecting lingering scepticism over the longer-term fiscal outlook for the country.

 

The country's domestic stock and currency markets were closed on Friday due to Eid festival holidays.

With sky-high inflation and foreign exchange reserves barely enough to cover one month of controlled imports, analysts say Pakistan's economic crisis could have spiralled into a debt default in the absence of an IMF deal.

The $3 billion funding, spread over nine months, is higher than expected as it looks set to replace the remaining $2.5 billion from a $6.5 billion Extended Fund Facility longer-term bailout package agreed in 2019, which expires on Friday.

The IMF funding will also unlock other bilateral and multilateral external financing and debt rollovers, particularly from friendly countries like Saudi Arabia and the UAE, which have already pledged around $3 billion.

"This will support near-term policy efforts and replenish gross reserves, with the aim of bringing them to more comfortable levels," the IMF said.

 
 

POWER PRICE HIKES

The new stand-by arrangement builds on the 2019 programme, IMF official Nathan Porter said on Thursday, adding that Pakistan's economy had faced several challenges in recent times, including devastating floods last year and commodity price hikes following the war in Ukraine.

"Despite the authorities' efforts to reduce imports and the trade deficit, reserves have declined to very low levels. Liquidity conditions in the power sector also remain acute," Porter said in a statement.

"Given these challenges, the new arrangement would provide a policy anchor and a framework for financial support from multilateral and bilateral partners in the period ahead."

Porter also pointed out the power sector's buildup of arrears and frequent power outages.

Reforms in the energy sector, which has accumulated nearly 3.6 trillion Pakistani rupees ($12.58 billion) in debt, has been a cornerstone of the discussions with the IMF.

The IMF would want steadfast policy implementation by Pakistan to overcome challenges, "particularly in the energy sector," the statement said.

"The authorities' programme also includes ongoing efforts to strengthen the viability of the energy sector (including through a timely FY24 annual rebasing)," the lender said, which means a rise in electricity tariffs in the fiscal year.

Government sources told Reuters that the hike will come ahead of the IMF board review of the bailout in mid-July.

"Reform does not — must not — mean raising tariff endlessly," Pakistan's Minister for Power Khurram Dastgir told Reuters in a text message following the deal.

With the tenure of the current government ending in August, Dastgir said the Sharif administration had put in place an "aggressive medium-to-long-term plan" to increase renewable energy generation dramatically in order to reduce cost.

He said this was only possible if long-term assistance is available to put that plan into place. He did not confirm whether there was an imminent hike in base tariffs on the cards.

PAINFUL REFORMS

Islamabad has taken a slew of policy measures since an IMF team arrived in Pakistan earlier this year, including a revised 2023-24 budget last week to meet the lender's demands.

Other adjustments demanded by the IMF before clinching the deal included reversing subsidies in power and export sectors, hikes in energy and fuel prices, jacking up the key policy rate to 22%, a market-based currency exchange rate and arranging for external financing.

It also got Pakistan to raise over 385 billion rupee ($1.34 billion) in new taxation through a supplementary budget for the 2022-23 fiscal year and the revised budget for 2023-24.

Going forward, the IMF said, the central bank should remain pro-active to reduce inflation and maintain a foreign exchange framework.

The painful adjustments have already fuelled all time high inflation of 38% year-on-year in May.

"The FY24 budget advances a primary surplus of around 0.4 percent of GDP by taking some steps to broaden the tax base and increase tax collection from under-taxed sectors," Porter said, adding it also ensured space to strengthen support for the vulnerable through a cash handout programme.

He said it will be important that the budget is executed as planned, and authorities resist pressures for unbudgeted spending or tax exemptions in the period ahead.

"This new programme is far better than our expectations," said Mohammed Sohail of Topline Securities in Karachi, adding there were a lot of uncertainties on what would happen after a new government comes to power later in the year.

"This funding of 3 billion dollars and for 9 months will definitely help restore some investor confidence," he said. (Reuters)