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Global trade in goods is expected to fall 9.2 percent in 2020, but will be followed by a 7.2 percent increase in 2021, the World Trade Organization (WTO) said on Tuesday in its latest statement on revised world trade predictions.

In April, the WTO had forecast a decline in the volume of world trade in goods for this year of between 13 percent and 32 percent as the COVID-19 pandemic disrupts economic activity and normal life around the world.

"World trade is showing signs of bouncing back from the deep decline caused by COVID-19," explained the WTO economists in a press release.

It added that "the strong trading performance in June and July has brought some signs of optimism for overall trade growth in 2020."

However, the WTO's latest forecast for next year is more pessimistic than the previous forecast of 21.3 percent growth, leaving goods trade well below its pre-pandemic 2021 trend.

The WTO warned that "the impact of the ongoing pandemic could disrupt any recovery. "

WTO Deputy Director-General Yi Xiaozhun told a press conference that the trade impact of the crisis has differed dramatically across the region, with "relatively moderate declines" in trade volumes in Asia and "stronger contractions" in Europe and North America.

WTO senior economist Coleman Nee explained that "China supports trade in the (Asian) region" and "Chinese import demand underpins intra-regional trade" and "helps contribute to global demand". Although the decline in trade during the COVID-19 pandemic was of similar magnitude to the 2008-09 global financial crisis, the economic context is very different, said WTO economists.

"The contraction in GDP has been much stronger in the current recession, while the decline in trade has been more moderate," they said.

The volume of world merchandise trade is expected to fall only about twice as much as world GDP, rather than six times during the 2009 collapse. (Antaranews)