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26
January

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The Bank of Japan could consider steps to allow bond yields to move more flexibly even before inflation durably hits its 2% target, the International Monetary Fund's Japan mission chief Ranil Salgado told Reuters.

Allowing long-term interest rates to move more flexibly would allow the BOJ to address both upside and downside risks to inflation, and help iron out market distortions caused by its heavy bond buying, Salgado said in an interview on Thursday.

"We don't see this as really changing the (BOJ's) accommodative stance. It's more to balance some of the impact on the real economy against the impact on financial markets," he said.

"It also makes it easier to begin the transition towards an eventual raising of the short-term rate," Salgado said, adding that steps to enhance flexibility in bond yields could come before the BOJ's 2% price target is durably met.

But a hike in short-term rates is unlikely in the near-term and can be considered only when there is clear evidence that wages will keep rising and help the BOJ achieve its inflation target in a sustainable manner, he said.

"First, you need to be confident that there's strong evidence the 2% target will be durably achieved. That's the key pre-condition" for a short-term rate hike, Salgado said.

"Really, the key is what will happen to wages," he said on how quickly the BOJ can phase out its massive stimulus.

While wages for non-regular workers are starting to rise, the momentum for higher pay has yet to spill over to regular workers under life-time employment, Salgado added.

Under yield curve control (YCC), the BOJ sets a -0.1% target for short-term rates and that for the 10-year bond yield around zero as part of efforts to sustainably meet its price target.

With inflation hitting a 41-year high of 4% and putting upward pressure on bond yields, the BOJ widened the allowance band around the 10-year yield target in December.

In January, it beefed up a market operation tool to defend the newly set 0.5% cap on the 10-year bond yield, a move aimed at extending the lifespan of YCC. (Reuters)

26
January

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Several demonstrators who were apprehended for publicly protesting China's then-ongoing zero-COVID policy remain in detention, face charges or have not been heard from, Human Rights Watch said in a report on Thursday.

In late November, protests broke out in numerous cities across China calling for an end to the country's nearly three years of strict enforcement of the zero-COVID policy. Many demonstrators held up blank sheets of white paper, which became a symbol of their discontent.

Some protestors also shouted slogans calling for the ouster of President Xi Jinping or the ruling Communist Party.

The protests, unprecedented in Xi's decade in power, which has seen an increasingly heavy crackdown on dissent, petered out within days amid a heavy police presence. Numerous individuals were apprehended and subsequently released, protesters, lawyers and academics told Reuters at the time, adding that they were concerned that some could face consequences later.

Human Rights Watch researchers cited four protestors in Beijing - editor Cao Zhixin, accountant Li Yuanjing, teacher Zhai Dengrui, and journalist Li Siqi - as having been formally arrested for "picking quarrels and provoking trouble", which can carry a sentence of up to five years.

In Shanghai, the whereabouts of two protestors who demonstrated on Wulumuqi Road, Li Yi and Chen Jialin, are unknown, Human Rights Watch said.

The group called on authorities to release all of the individuals immediately.

Reuters could not independently verify the status of the individuals named in the report.

Calls by Reuters to China's Ministry of Public Security for a comment were not answered.

Human Rights Watch said "a few" protestors were released on bail.

"More protestors are believed to have been detained or forcibly disappeared, though their cases are not publicly known, given the Chinese authorities' practice of threatening detainees' families to keep silent," it said.

In early December, soon after the protests, China abruptly dropped most of its zero-COVID curbs, and the coronavirus has spread rapidly across the country. (Reuters)

26
January

 

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More than 160 people have died from the cold in Afghanistan this month in the worst winter in more than a decade, authorities said on Thursday, as residents described being unable to afford fuel to heat homes in temperatures well below freezing.

"162 people have died due to cold weather since January 10 until now," said Shafiullah Rahimi, a spokesperson for the Minister of Disaster Management. About 84 of the deaths had taken place in the last week.

The coldest winter in 15 years, which has seen temperatures dip as low as -34 degrees Celsius (-29.2 degrees Fahrenheit), has hit Afghanistan in the middle of a severe economic crisis.

Many aid groups have partially suspended operations in recent weeks due to a Taliban administration ruling that most female NGO workers could not work, leaving agencies unable to operate many programmes in the conservative country.

In a snowy field in the west of the Afghan capital, children rummaged through rubbish looking for plastic to burn to help their families, unable to afford wood or coal.

Nearby, 30-year-old shopkeeper Ashour Ali lives with his family in a concrete basement, where his five children shiver from cold.

"This year, the weather is extremely cold and we couldn't buy coal for ourselves," he said, adding the small amount he makes from his shop was no longer enough for fuel.

"The children wake up from the cold and cry at night until the morning. They are all sick. So far, we have not received any help and we do not have enough bread to eat most of the time."

During a visit to Kabul this week, U.N. aid chief Martin Griffiths said the world body was seeking exemptions to the ban on most female aid workers that was coming at one of the most vulnerable times for many Afghans.

"The Afghan winter … as everybody in Afghanistan knows is the big messenger of doom for so many families in Afghanistan as we go through these many years of humanitarian need … we see some of the consequences in loss of life," Griffiths told Reuters. (Reuters)

26
January

 

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China's reopened borders and renewed focus on boosting the sagging economy have brightened the deals outlook, with bankers starting to field interest for mergers, acquisitions and fundraising involving the world's second-largest economy.

The prospect of a revival in deals comes as Chinese policymakers try to restore private-sector confidence and growth, which has been ravaged by the COVID-19 pandemic and a sweeping regulatory crackdown.

Although consumer, retail and travel-related firms are expected to bounce back after an almost three-year lockdown, advisers say sectors linked to strengthening China's economic prospects will be at the centre of dealmaking this year.

"We see strategic sectors, hardcore industrial technology, automation, semiconductor-related to be a focus for outbound activity," said Mark Webster, partner and head of Singapore at BDA Partners, an Asia-focused investment banking adviser.

"Healthcare opportunities are proving of interest, both domestically and outbound, including in Southeast Asia," he added. "Geographically, Indonesia in particular is attracting a lot of attention."

Australia has also already emerged on China's radar amid hopes of a diplomatic thaw between the two countries. In one such deal, Tianqi Lithium (002466.SZ) and IGO's (IGO.AX) joint venture are bidding for lithium miner Essential Metals.

Outbound M&A involving companies in China halved last year to the lowest point since 2006, Refinitiv data showed, which pulled total Chinese company-led dealmaking to its lowest point in nine years.

Chinese companies' capital markets deals slipped 44% in the same period, according to Refinitiv data. That slump crimped the fees earned by Wall Street banks and forced some of them to cut jobs, mainly those linked to Chinese deals, in the past few months.

"We have had a lot more requests for proposals from companies in the past two to three weeks," said Li He, a capital markets partner at law firm Davis Polk who travelled to Beijing to meet clients the day after China's border reopened on Jan. 8.

"That is not just because of travel but people think that a reopening is good for the economy, good for capital markets and good for deal execution," He said.

The reopening coincided with a thaw in regulatory scrutiny that had seen overseas Chinese IPOs grind to a halt in the past 18 months amid proposed rule changes, and the tech sector struggle with a range of new regulations.

Until the border reopened, travel from Hong Kong into mainland China had been tightly restricted for about three years - a sharp change for advisers for whom weekly trips to China had been common.

Opened borders could lead to a pick up in deals involving private equity funds later in 2023 as firms head to China to find buyers for their assets, according to Bagrin Angelov, head of China cross-border M&A at Chinese investment bank CICC.

Chinese private equity activity was worth $24.1 billion in 2022, down from $57.8 billion a year before, Pitchbook data showed.

"Six months or one year before the deal, private equity firms would already start meeting potential buyers to try to warm up the interest and try to understand who could be interested," Beijing-based Angelov said.

"For them certainty is very important, and they really need to meet buyers very early on," he continued. "Because of opening up, we expect an uptick in overseas disposal of private equity to Chinese buyers." (Reuters)