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23
October

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China's economy has high resilience, sufficient potential and room for manoeuvre, President Xi Jinping said on Sunday, during a ceremony where China unveiled the new members of its highest political body, the Politburo Standing Committee.

China will open its doors even wider, Xi also said to dozens of journalists packed into a room inside central Beijing's Great Hall of the People.

China's development is inseparable from the world and the world also needs China, Xi added, according to state media. (Reuters)

23
October

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China's Xi Jinping secured a precedent-breaking third leadership term on Sunday and introduced a new Politburo Standing Committee stacked with loyalists, cementing his place as the country's most powerful ruler since Mao Zedong.

Shanghai Communist Party chief Li Qiang, 63, followed Xi onto the stage at the Great Hall of the People as the new leadership team was introduced, meaning he is likely to succeed Li Keqiang as premier when he retires in March.

The other members of the seven-man Standing Committee, China's top governing body, are Zhao Leji and Wang Huning, who return from the previous committee, and newcomers Cai Qi, Ding Xuexiang and Li Xi. Li Qiang is also new to the Standing Committee.

All are perceived to have close allegiance to Xi, 69, who was also re-appointed on Sunday as chairman of the Central Military Commission.

"An abnormally lopsided victory for one faction, which is rare in the tradition of the Communist Party, in the past there would be a rough balance of power," said Willy Lam, senior fellow at U.S. think tank the Jamestown Foundation.

"It means there won’t be any checks and balances. Xi Jinping also has total control over the larger Politburo and Central Committee," he said.

The unveiling of the Standing Committee and the larger 24-member Politburo comes a day after the closing of the ruling Communist Party's 20th Congress, where amendments were added to the party charter aimed at cementing the core status of Xi and the guiding role of his political thought within the party.

The Standing Committee lineup is further confirmation that Xi's grip on power is undiminished by the events of a tumultuous year, including a sharp economic slowdown, frustration over his zero-COVID policy, and China's increasing estrangement from the West, exacerbated by his support for Russia's Vladimir Putin.

“In terms of policymaking, it does mean that there is likely to be more deference to Xi Jinping's own views about how to move the country and the economy forward," said Alvin Tan, head of Asia FX strategy at RBC Capital Markets in Singapore.

"I can imagine that zero-COVID policy is likely more entrenched, and there’s going to be further push on this issue of common prosperity and the like," he said.

As expected, the new line-up does not include a clear successor to Xi, the son of a Communist Party revolutionary who has taken China in a more authoritarian direction since rising to power in 2012.

The unveiling comes a day after Li Keqiang and Wang Yang, seen by analysts as relative moderates that were young enough to serve longer in top decision-making bodies, were excluded from the wider Central Committee. Both have ties with the Communist Youth League, a once-influential group that experts say has lost power under Xi.

Xi laid the groundwork to rule beyond a decade when he eliminated the two-term limit on the presidency in 2018. His term as president is likely to be renewed at the annual parliamentary session in March, where the next premier will also be officially named. (Reuters)

23
October

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China's Xi Jinping secured a precedent-breaking third leadership term on Sunday and introduced a new Politburo Standing Committee stacked with loyalists, cementing his place as the country's most powerful ruler since Mao Zedong.

Here are initial reactions from analysts and experts:

ALVIN TAN, HEAD OF ASIA FX STRATEGY, RBC CAPITAL MARKETS, SINGAPORE"

“It does look like it’s dominated by Xi’s allies.”

“In terms of policymaking, it does mean that there is likely to be more deference to Xi Jinping’s own views about how to move the country and the economy forward... I can imagine that zero-COVID policy is likely more entrenched and there’s going to be further push on this issue of common prosperity and the like.”

DREW THOMPSON, VISITING SENIOR RESEARCH FELLOW AT NATIONAL UNIVERSITY OF SINGAPORE'S LEE KUAN YEW SCHOOL OF PUBLIC POLICY:

"This is a leadership that will be focussed on achieving Xi’s political goals, rather than pursuing their own agendas for what they think is best for the country. There is only one correct way to govern, and that is Xi’s way.

"Foreign investors and businesses have desperately searched for signs that liberals or 'reformers' will play a role in shaping the economy or bringing back an old economic order that prioritised foreign investment and liberalisation of the economy. It is clear from the outcome of the 20th Party Congress that national security and the party’s political security will take precedence over economic growth."

RICHARD McGREGOR, SENIOR FELLOW FOR EAST ASIA, LOWY INSTITUTE, SYDNEY:

"The result was a resounding victory for Xi, more decisive than many experienced observers had forecast. All of his rivals, potential and real, have been forced out of the Politburo Standing Committee and Xi loyalists took their place. The new Politburo is an emphatic statement of Xi’s dominance over the party.

"I think the congress has drawn a line between the past and the future in profound ways, both for Chinese domestic politics and the way in which its influence spills out into the rest of the world.

"Xi has dispensed with the old factional system, such as it was. He has crushed expectations that he would nurture a successor. He has ignored the informal age caps on officials serving in top positions."

CHRIS MILLER, PROFESSOR AT TUFTS UNIVERSITY, MASSACHUSETTS:

“The party congress has reaffirmed Xi's decisive role in ruling the Communist Party, marking a continued shift away from collective leadership of party elites toward a personalized dictatorship. It also appears to have confirmed the downgrading of economic growth as a key party goal, relative to other agenda items such as zero-COVID and the party's political and ideological control. On tech, the key theme was self-sufficiency in science and technology, which is to be expected given the increasing decoupling of the U.S. and Chinese tech sectors.”

YANG ZHANG, ASSISTANT PROFESSOR, AMERICAN UNIVERSITY SCHOOL OF INTERNATIONAL SERVICE, WASHINGTON:

"This (Politburo Standing Committee) does not mean that Xi will become an omnipotent supreme leader and can do anything. Above all, his unlimited power will be constrained by his limited capacity and decreasing energy as he turns older. Remember Mao or Emperor Qian Long?

"Plus, Xi's full control means his team will be fully responsible for any policy mistake. His autocracy may provoke stronger international pushback from the U.S.-led Western countries. All of these scenarios will make his third and likely fourth terms not as easy as expected."

GARY NG, SENIOR ECONOMIST, ASIA PACIFIC, NATIXIS, HONG KONG:

“The new inner circle will extend and heighten the current policy stance, and generally it seems that most of the newly appointed officials seem to be Xi’s key allies. So I guess this is also a move of the further consolidation of power, or maybe in the future, of course, performance is important, but also loyalty is increasingly a key concern when picking officials.”

JA IAN CHONG, POLITICAL SCIENTIST, NATIONAL UNIVERSITY OF SINGAPORE:

"It certainly seems to be a consolidation of Xi’s position. This means that policies will be more directly attached to Xi for good or ill. I guess that translates to more focus on party-state control over business, less dependence on imports even as the PRC (People's Republic of China) seeks to export. So probably more direct party-state direction of the economy. Investment will likely seek to meet those above goals, especially if they can bring in technology. So while there may be opportunities for investors, they have to look to both market forces and political preferences more. So more of what we have already been seeing.

"Probably no lifting of COVID-zero policy in the near future, and more assertiveness in foreign and security. Even more broadly, U.S.-PRC friction will continue to grow."

DYLAN LOH, ASSISTANT PROFESSOR, NANYANG TECHNOLOGICAL UNIVERSITY:

"It's quite clear that the Politburo have been stacked with Xi loyalists and that would mean he has a much freer rein and mandate in pursuing his domestic and foreign policies as collective leadership and decision making has been de-emphasised over coalescing around Xi and implementing his decisions. It seems that he has not elevated a potential successor for now, which gives him the flexibility for a fourth term. Regarding investment, I do not think China's policies will turn sharply because of this line up, I think by and large Xi's priorities have not changed."

"Wang Huning’s presence also indicates to me that the ideological bent of the party and Xi will continue and even deepen."

PEIQIAN LIU, CHINA ECONOMIST, NATWEST MARKETS, SINGAPORE:

“It’s kind of in line and a surprise. What has been in line with expectations is really (that) President Xi is consolidating his power... And what’s been surprising is that there have been four people sort of retired from the Standing Committee – that’s more than our initial expectation of two.”

“It does look like Xi is having more say within the Politburo Standing Committee, and also with his ideology being written in the party’s charter, that’s a symbolisation of him being more strategically important within the political committee.” (Reuters)

23
October

World Meteorological Organisation Secretary general Pettreri Taalas - 

 

The supply of electricity from clean energy sources must double within the next eight years to limit global temperature increase. Otherwise, there is a risk that climate change, more extreme weather and water stress will undermine our energy security and even jeopardize renewable energy supplies, according to a new multi-agency report from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).

WMO’s State of Climate Services annual report, which includes inputs from 26 different organizations, focuses on energy this year because it holds the key to international agreements on sustainable development and climate change and, indeed, to the planet's health.

“The energy sector is the source of around three-quarters of global greenhouse gas emissions. Switching to clean forms of energy generation, such as solar, wind and hydropower – and improving energy efficiency – is vital if we are to thrive in the twenty-first century. Net zero by 2050 is the aim. But we will only get there if we double the supply of low-emissions electricity within the next eight years,” said WMO Secretary-General Prof Petteri Taalas.

Access to reliable weather, water and climate information and services will be increasingly important to strengthen the resilience of energy infrastructure and meet rising demand (an increase of 30% in the past ten years).

According to a release received by Voice of Indonesia on Saturday (22/10/22), the 2022 State of Climate Services: Energy report has plenty of good news. It highlights the huge opportunities for green powered grids to help tackle climate change, improve air quality, conserve water resources, protect the environment, create jobs and safeguard a better future for us all.

By 2050, global electricity needs- which will be increasing over the years being electrification a strategic lever to tackle Net Zero goals - will mainly be met with renewable energy, with solar the single largest supply source. African countries have an opportunity to seize untapped potential and be major players in the market. Africa is home to 60% of the best solar resources globally, yet with only 1% of installed photovoltaic capacity.

”We urgently need to respond to the growing impact of climate change on energy systems if we are to maintain energy security while accelerating the transition to net-zero.  This requires long-term planning and bold policy action to spur investment, which in turn needs to be underpinned by comprehensive and reliable weather and climate data,” says Dr Fatih Birol, International Energy Agency Executive Director.

“Now is the time to accelerate the transition to a renewable energy future. Anything short of radical and immediate action will ultimately eliminate the chance of staying on the 1.5°C path. The intertwined energy and climate crises have dramatically exposed the weaknesses and vulnerabilities of an economic system heavily reliant on fossil fuels. Advancing the transition to renewables is a strategic choice to bring affordable energy, jobs, economic growth and a resilient environment to the people and communities on the ground,” said Francesco La Camera, IRENA’s Director-General.

More can and must be done. According to UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, bold climate action could deliver US$26 trillion in economic benefits by 2030. And yet, investment in renewable energy is much too low, especially in developing countries and too little attention is paid to the importance of climate services for energy to support both climate adaptation and decisions on how to reduce greenhouse gases.

“The Adaptation Fund is pleased to be a founding partner and contributor to this valuable report. The energy sector is crucial in helping curb emissions that cause climate change – at the same time, energy production itself needs to adapt to the climate impacts that are already taking place and accelerating.

The Adaptation Fund funds projects that are based on the adaptation priorities of vulnerable developing countries, and we have been pleased to see an increasing number of country-driven activities that address the specific adaptation needs of the energy sector at different scales,” says Mikko Ollikainen, Head of the Adaptation Fund.  

The report will be launched at a high-level event on 11 October and will also be presented to the World Energy Council summit on 13 October in Scotland. It is accompanied by an interactive digital story map//VOI